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Advantage Play - The Physics Guys Say Yes and No
Posted: 30 April 2013 09:07 AM   [ Ignore ]
Chingy711
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Absolutely possible, predict 99% of the time +/- an 18 number sector,
  well that’s a great big whopper! Here’s a article one of the Physics
  guys gave me. Interesting story for those wanting to explore the
  possibilities.

  A PROMINENT mathematician famous the world over for successfully turning the odds of roulette against the house has broken his decades-long silence about how he achieved the coup.

In the 1970s, Doyne Farmer, then a graduate student, used the world’s first wearable computer to beat roulette tables in Nevada, but never revealed how he did it.

Now he has decided to break his long silence after a pair of researchers, inspired by his story, developed and published their own method of beating the house.

“I kept silent because I did not want to communicate any information that might prevent anyone from taking the casinos’ money,” writes Farmer, now at the University of Oxford, in a draft paper that he showed to New Scientist. “I see no good reason for staying silent any longer.”

Farmer’s paper is a response to recent research by Michael Small from the University of Western Australia in Perth and Michael Tse from Hong Kong Polytechnic University, submitted to the journal Chaos. They demonstrate that with a few measurements and a small computer or smartphone, you can indeed tip the odds in your favour. The trick is to record when the ball and a set part of the rotating wheel both pass a chosen point.

Their model divides the game into two parts: what happens while the ball rolls around the rim of the wheel and then falls, which is highly predictable, and what happens after the ball starts bouncing around, which is chaotic and hard to predict. Because the first part is predictable, Small and Tse were able to calculate roughly where the ball would begin its erratic bouncing and therefore in which part of the wheel it was more likely to land.

Using a subtle counting device similar to Farmer’s, the pair was able to predict in which half of the wheel the ball would fall in 13 out of 22 trials. In three trials, the model predicted the exact pocket. That is equivalent to taking the odds from 2.7 per cent in the house’s favour (on European roulette wheels) to 18 per cent in the player’s favour. That is a very small number of trials, so they then confirmed their technique via 700 trials using an automated camera system, which would be too conspicuous to use in a casino (arxiv.org/abs/1204.6412).

Farmer says Small and Tse’s model is very similar to his own, except that they assume that the main force slowing the ball down is friction with the rim, whereas he found that it is air resistance.

Small is confident that casinos are aware of the trick. Holger Dullin, an expert in chaos theory and mechanics from the University of Sydney in Australia, says they could guard against it by closing bets before the wheel has rotated enough times for sufficient measurements.

Small says people tell him they have tried it and it works: “One guy even sent me pictures of his toe with this little clicker thing on the end.”

 Signature 

“If it’s not broken, don’t fix it!”

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Posted: 30 April 2013 10:51 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1 ]
VB Meister
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Chingy711 - 30 April 2013 09:07 AM

Absolutely possible, predict 99% of the time +/- an 18 number sector,
  well that’s a great big whopper! Here’s a article one of the Physics
  guys gave me. Interesting story for those wanting to explore the
  possibilities.

  A PROMINENT mathematician famous the world over for successfully turning the odds of roulette against the house has broken his decades-long silence about how he achieved the coup.

In the 1970s, Doyne Farmer, then a graduate student, used the world’s first wearable computer to beat roulette tables in Nevada, but never revealed how he did it.

Now he has decided to break his long silence after a pair of researchers, inspired by his story, developed and published their own method of beating the house.

“I kept silent because I did not want to communicate any information that might prevent anyone from taking the casinos’ money,” writes Farmer, now at the University of Oxford, in a draft paper that he showed to New Scientist. “I see no good reason for staying silent any longer.”

Farmer’s paper is a response to recent research by Michael Small from the University of Western Australia in Perth and Michael Tse from Hong Kong Polytechnic University, submitted to the journal Chaos. They demonstrate that with a few measurements and a small computer or smartphone, you can indeed tip the odds in your favour. The trick is to record when the ball and a set part of the rotating wheel both pass a chosen point.

Their model divides the game into two parts: what happens while the ball rolls around the rim of the wheel and then falls, which is highly predictable, and what happens after the ball starts bouncing around, which is chaotic and hard to predict. Because the first part is predictable, Small and Tse were able to calculate roughly where the ball would begin its erratic bouncing and therefore in which part of the wheel it was more likely to land.

Using a subtle counting device similar to Farmer’s, the pair was able to predict in which half of the wheel the ball would fall in 13 out of 22 trials. In three trials, the model predicted the exact pocket. That is equivalent to taking the odds from 2.7 per cent in the house’s favour (on European roulette wheels) to 18 per cent in the player’s favour. That is a very small number of trials, so they then confirmed their technique via 700 trials using an automated camera system, which would be too conspicuous to use in a casino (arxiv.org/abs/1204.6412).

Farmer says Small and Tse’s model is very similar to his own, except that they assume that the main force slowing the ball down is friction with the rim, whereas he found that it is air resistance.

Small is confident that casinos are aware of the trick. Holger Dullin, an expert in chaos theory and mechanics from the University of Sydney in Australia, says they could guard against it by closing bets before the wheel has rotated enough times for sufficient measurements.

Small says people tell him they have tried it and it works: “One guy even sent me pictures of his toe with this little clicker thing on the end.”

Yip. And? I do this without a computer. Believe me if I bet $25 chips on a Min$10 table, there are various others who bet the max, $200 per number. Casinos leave nmb as long as possible because punters keep putting chips down as long as there is time. I love high roll tables, there I can throw $100 chips and no one thinks it’s extraordinary….. I believe do not make it personal with the casino. choose busy tables where your wins are negligable against the casino wins… no problem.

BTW, The description about the computer is very simplistic. I know for a fact that today’s computers are way more advanced. I also said I do what the computer does but that is not correct. I am way more accurate than that. I do not aim for half the wheel. Typically I aim for 5 to 9 pockets BUT It depends on the wheel off course.

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Posted: 17 May 2013 01:51 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 2 ]
AP2012
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You can basically rape a wheel with out any kind of device.
It is scary, but it is the truth.

The wheel by it self can do all the work for you and you only have to observe, charting and segregate collected data.
It is scary, but it is the truth.

When you find does specific visual ballistic parameters that manifest a edge, then you can play with positive expectation.
It is scary, but it is the truth.

You can identify a wheel bowl and rotor and follow its movement around the casino, having a long term wheel.
It is scary, but it is the truth.

But getting to that point of understanding and getting that kind of knowledge you have to know the best of the best.
It is scary, but it is the truth.

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Posted: 17 May 2013 11:14 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 3 ]
roulettedealer
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You dont even have to follow a specific wheel, or even use a counting device or a mental count…which is great, but not neccessary. While the ideal wheel is makes things much easier, you can acheive very accurate predictions within 3 ball rotations, and very very easily…with the naked eye. Every player should do a scatter analysis and in my opinion, choose one paticular wheel speed for predictions. What this does is allow you to quickly bet on a manageable ball scatter and not have to worry about an irratic scatter pattern, or charting different scatter patterns for various wheel speeds. Wheel speed can easily be determined at the same time the ball is being clocked, and as you make your prediction, you will also know right away if it is a “playable” spin. A simple method, used under ideal conditions, makes roulette prediction easy for anyone to do…this is the way I play, when I play alone, and its usually on an automated wheel, however, I do use some different approaches in a team enviornment. My mehod of play is always changing and being tweaked, as I find a new and easier way to do the same thing the more I play. I believe this should be the goal of any AP player…mastering their art.——Brian

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Posted: 18 May 2013 01:55 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 4 ]
harryj
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roulettedealer - 17 May 2013 11:14 PM

I believe this should be the goal of any AP player…mastering their art.——Brian

    This should be the goal of every player Brian!  OK I know we dont agree on how to play. You don’t believe my way is possible.Well there are a lot of people who don’t believe your way is possible. Tennyson wrote “God forfils Himself in many ways, lest one good custom should corrupt the world.” I wish a few of these political and religious hotheads would remember that before they started blowing each others heads off!!
    I was very impressed by your post. That’s what we want to see’ By all means plug AP hard, but not by denigrating everything else.
You mention auto wheels( Airball? Organic?) I have often thought they were ripe for plucking. but by the time they came on the scene I was already set in my ways. The early versions I came across were rather crude. In any case they were double zero American wheels surrounded by single zero wheels that were being spun faster(80-90 spins an hour). After the local casinos withdrew the live wheels surrounded by touch screens, All my play was on auto machines(60 spins an hour). When you play for a small advantage(perhaps I shouldn’t use that word. I don’t want to wave a red cape!),and for small stakes you need lots of action to make it worthwhile.
      Best wishes       Harry

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Posted: 18 May 2013 03:48 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 5 ]
VB Meister
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harryj - 18 May 2013 01:55 AM
roulettedealer - 17 May 2013 11:14 PM

I believe this should be the goal of any AP player…mastering their art.——Brian

    This should be the goal of every player Brian!  OK I know we dont agree on how to play. You don’t believe my way is possible.Well there are a lot of people who don’t believe your way is possible. Tennyson wrote “God forfils Himself in many ways, lest one good custom should corrupt the world.” I wish a few of these political and religious hotheads would remember that before they started blowing each others heads off!!
    I was very impressed by your post. That’s what we want to see’ By all means plug AP hard, but not by denigrating everything else.
You mention auto wheels( Airball? Organic?) I have often thought they were ripe for plucking. but by the time they came on the scene I was already set in my ways. The early versions I came across were rather crude. In any case they were double zero American wheels surrounded by single zero wheels that were being spun faster(80-90 spins an hour). After the local casinos withdrew the live wheels surrounded by touch screens, All my play was on auto machines(60 spins an hour). When you play for a small advantage(perhaps I shouldn’t use that word. I don’t want to wave a red cape!),and for small stakes you need lots of action to make it worthwhile.
      Best wishes       Harry

But Harry. Explain to me how you manifested an edge.

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Posted: 19 May 2013 01:10 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 6 ]
roulettedealer
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The organic roulette machine is the most beatable wheel Ive ever played…..ever. The only one in my area just got removed a couple of weeks ago. My brother works the slot department, and he said it was loosing too much money. These machines are not considered table games…here anyways, which is good because you dont have the same game protection standards as a live wheel…which means you can fly below the radar. I personally raped this machine each and every time I played it…it just about became my only wheel. I still played one live wheel in a team enviornment once a week, but I was at the auto wheel every night. 40 dollar buy ins, leave without 2 to 300, played about 3-4 hours on average….5 days a week. I always started small…betting 25 cents a number, and then worked my way up. Once I reached a couple of hundred…I left. Only a handfull of times did I not reach my goal…I left with maybe 100 dollars…but this is because I only bet on one set of spin conditions….and sometimes I might only get one bet in 20 spins….but sometimes much much fewer than that, and on these days I have to leave with a modest profit.—-Brian

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Posted: 19 May 2013 05:19 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 7 ]
harryj
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VB Meister - 18 May 2013 03:48 PM
harryj - 18 May 2013 01:55 AM
roulettedealer - 17 May 2013 11:14 PM

I believe this should be the goal of any AP player…mastering their art.——Brian

    This should be the goal of every player Brian!  OK I know we dont agree on how to play. You don’t believe my way is possible.Well there are a lot of people who don’t believe your way is possible.
      Best wishes       Harry

But Harry. Explain to me how you manifested an edge.

  Hi VB,
      I am glad you didn’t suggest ‘advantage’. You are able to gain a positive advantage by visually estimating where the ball will end up. In other words eliminating chance. I gain an ‘edge’ by manipulating the maths of chance, using principles that you barely acknowledge. Like most people your understanding of probability is based more on ‘The Law of Large Numbers’ than the more important, at least for gamblers, ’ Central Limit Theorum’. Variance is a basic part of probability, CLT lays down certain rules that allow the estimation of the likely degree of variance. Out of this comes the various principles that can be used to manipulate chance. No advantage, no guarantees, just a strong possibility.      Regards     Harry

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Posted: 30 May 2013 02:10 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 8 ]
VB Meister
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harryj - 19 May 2013 05:19 AM
VB Meister - 18 May 2013 03:48 PM
harryj - 18 May 2013 01:55 AM
roulettedealer - 17 May 2013 11:14 PM

I believe this should be the goal of any AP player…mastering their art.——Brian

    This should be the goal of every player Brian!  OK I know we dont agree on how to play. You don’t believe my way is possible.Well there are a lot of people who don’t believe your way is possible.
      Best wishes       Harry

But Harry. Explain to me how you manifested an edge.

  Hi VB,
      I am glad you didn’t suggest ‘advantage’. You are able to gain a positive advantage by visually estimating where the ball will end up. In other words eliminating chance. I gain an ‘edge’ by manipulating the maths of chance, using principles that you barely acknowledge. Like most people your understanding of probability is based more on ‘The Law of Large Numbers’ than the more important, at least for gamblers, ’ Central Limit Theorum’. Variance is a basic part of probability, CLT lays down certain rules that allow the estimation of the likely degree of variance. Out of this comes the various principles that can be used to manipulate chance. No advantage, no guarantees, just a strong possibility.      Regards     Harry

smile Stromg possibilities? Yeah right smile

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Posted: 31 May 2013 07:26 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 9 ]
Pertinax
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VB Meister - 30 May 2013 02:10 PM

smile Stromg possibilities? Yeah right smile

Connection between random cannot be eliminated I guess, though just curious if random constitutes just
what happens on the roulette wheel or only what you see with your own eyes, or could be exposed to, or
only that which you are aware that you yourself are exposed to!?

For instance, if I see 30 reds on a random generator or another roulette wheel, does that mean it gives a
strong possibility I will next see a black on the wheel I play, or is it somehow the random on the wheel is
connected but dissconnected to the random all around.  Somehow the random we see that is of particular
interest to us at that particular time will concur to our beliefs or thoughts, with all other random irrelevant.

Can the fact we decide to lay a chip down make the difference or if there was a connection between random,
could we decide which random is isolated simply by taking part, or would you need to account for all the
random you are exposed to at any given time or possibly present in the universe, which might be impossible
to reason there is any such thing as random in the universe if cause and effect holds in its entirity!  But you
would then have to account for everything, not just that of interest

It was once said that god does not play dice with the universe, can mankind do such a task replacing the
universe for random, and the dice with their pay check?  Tad confusing.

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Posted: 31 May 2013 04:38 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 10 ]
harryj
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Hi Pertinax,
    I do wish you would read my posts it would save a lot of repetition. If you saw a sequence of 30 reds the mathematical odds of red or black on a no zero wheel would be 50%. The chance that you will ever see a sequence of 30 reds has more zeros than I care to count. Frankly that’s not what it is about. I’m not interested in what comes next, my interest is in the odds of one red occuring in a sequence of a fixed length,or the number of reds I might reasonably expect in a sequence of fixed length. These are different and more complex calculations than the fixed odds and often offer the opportunity for exploitation. This is a matter of viewpoint and while you are fixated with the static odds you will never understand my style of play.
  As far as God not playing dice, the evidence certainly doesn’t support it!! Why else would he have created a world that is little more than a giant casino and apart from a few basic rules operates entirely on chance?  He must be a high roller, why else would he have given Man a free will and put him in charge of his prize creation and then bet Satan that Man wouldn’t F**K IT UP!!! THAT’S REAL GAMBLING.      Harry

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Posted: 01 June 2013 04:55 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 11 ]
Pertinax
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harryj - 31 May 2013 04:38 PM

Hi Pertinax,
    I do wish you would read my posts it would save a lot of repetition. If you saw a sequence of 30 reds the mathematical odds of red or black on a no zero wheel would be 50%. The chance that you will ever see a sequence of 30 reds has more zeros than I care to count. Frankly that’s not what it is about. I’m not interested in what comes next, my interest is in the odds of one red occuring in a sequence of a fixed length,or the number of reds I might reasonably expect in a sequence of fixed length. These are different and more complex calculations than the fixed odds and often offer the opportunity for exploitation. This is a matter of viewpoint and while you are fixated with the static odds you will never understand my style of play.
  As far as God not playing dice, the evidence certainly doesn’t support it!! Why else would he have created a world that is little more than a giant casino and apart from a few basic rules operates entirely on chance?  He must be a high roller, why else would he have given Man a free will and put him in charge of his prize creation and then bet Satan that Man wouldn’t F**K IT UP!!! THAT’S REAL GAMBLING.      Harry

I am not the religious type harryj, neither do I accept what you are saying regards anyone playing dice with the universe.
The saying was meant to reinforce an argument supposedly by einstien and oppose another camp of scientists, however
since then the subject matter of the topic has possibly supported the other camp, but if you were science inclined you may
hold reservation as good science works on the premise of “we will work with what we know untill it is proven wrong”. 

This does lead onto the other topic though, your posts have not proved anything, certainly would not save any time as it
only confirms to me what you believe, nothing more and I do not subscribe so easily.  There are tests and simple models
that refute any kind of betting stratagy over X amount of spins within expectation, and dictate the most you can hope for
is a lucky streak, i.e start point in the variance to match when you place your first chip, or as you kind of allude to, alter
your odds to make it unlikely you will lose in your lifetime, but sadly the house maximum negates this even if you could
materialise such a Bankroll to make such a venture worth your while, yet could still lose on the very first chain of events!
Sadly, harryj these models have not been shown to be flawed to date or for centuries past and further have spawned the
entire casino industry in that time adding weight to the subject that is very real and not opinion based.  They are also based
on pure probablity and variance so I lean toward them and not your opinion on the subject.  It is only when the house edge
is included does it become a negative edge game but we cannot seperate or just focus on one and ignore the other like some
suggest.  As we do not know if random maybe connected through the universe, but we know through the existence of the
roulette wheel being played, that this forms a connection between probability and the house edge encapsulated in a simple
game format of all it variants and is very real.  Dont believe me, try playing roulette if we remove one componant, say the
ball and then in this way the game is flawed along with the house edge which is now just a potential dream for the casino,
how about removing a pocket, or changing the odds of payout to 37/1, we know what to expect and dare I say what will
happen so why is it different not to know what to expect from the game as it stands?

If you want to prove them wrong, please, please, please show us and not just insist!  If there was some kind of understanding
to random which I will not argue against, even so I would very highly doubt we can simplify it down to the relative simplicity
of a single roulette wheel when compared to the universe it lives! 

Lets give people both sides of the coin and let them explore for themselves, define their own reasoning with as you say
their freedom of choice.  If I read all your old posts and agreed to them just to appease you it would be a dull forum, but
the truth is I understand your logic on simple probability, I just do not understand how it leads to a win past lucky random. 
I do not have to agree with you harryj or you with me, it is not disrepectful, an attack on your being, or done just to be
perdantic.

Past this topic you maybe a interesting guy to know, the fact we miss the important things for focusing on the irrelevant is
pretty sad and something we are both guilty.

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