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Facts about random numbers
Posted: 02 November 2014 09:28 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 241 ]
sergiy
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@ harrij, l do not deny my limited understanding of probability, lm not an expert myself. Hoever we do use it in estimation of prediction accuracy and level of confidence estimation. We still do calculate averages and means of destributions and do asses posible variance and coeeficient of sqwness our data may have. And we do abuse of chi- square and std calculations as a day by day practice.
I just wanna remind you that the low of large numbers do not garanty imidiate resoults and Bashilher ” rendom walk hypotese ” do account only for normall destribution cases, where large tail destributions are simply not accounted as a possibility.
Roulette can often produce resoults that do belong to that ” fat tail destributions” kind, wich translates in unexpected events beeng more probable than people would normally expect.
If all the gamblers would be such an experts in probability as they clame to be, they would be Advantage players instead. They would be using tools that do account for unexpected events and would understand the nessesity to limit freedom of the system they are trying to predict. Do you see, current stream of math development is creating tools wich models are taken from real world examples. It incudes weather forcasting, predicting markets, beating roulette..ets.
Roulette itself is a fisical system that does depend on external factors wich have to be used as predictors in order to limit its freedom.
Math itself in its pure form is an abstract science and can not be used to beat roulette game, becouse HE is garanted by the same math. Statistics is the same thing. Both this tools can be uppled only to understand fisical aspects of every past and current spin , wich have to be striped down to the variables. Variables themself are triggers just becouse they do pretence to the real physical model of the real phisical roulette wheel you are trying to beat, and not to some ethereal abstractional model based on trends wich can not be predicted.
Following real phisical roulette wheel is called playing, and following its abstraction model based on rendom groops destributions is called gambling. One is a real way to make money in the real world, betting on the real wheel. Other is following gambler fallacy illusorial expectations.
I don’t mean any offence, just saying truth.

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Posted: 03 November 2014 12:18 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 242 ]
palestis
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sergiy - 02 November 2014 09:28 PM

@ harrij, l do not deny my limited understanding of probability, lm not an expert myself. Hoever we do use it in estimation of prediction accuracy and level of confidence estimation. We still do calculate averages and means of destributions and do asses posible variance and coeeficient of sqwness our data may have. And we do abuse of chi- square and std calculations as a day by day practice.
I just wanna remind you that the low of large numbers do not garanty imidiate resoults and Bashilher ” rendom walk hypotese ” do account only for normall destribution cases, where large tail destributions are simply not accounted as a possibility.
Roulette can often produce resoults that do belong to that ” fat tail destributions” kind, wich translates in unexpected events beeng more probable than people would normally expect.
If all the gamblers would be such an experts in probability as they clame to be, they would be Advantage players instead. They would be using tools that do account for unexpected events and would understand the nessesity to limit freedom of the system they are trying to predict. Do you see, current stream of math development is creating tools wich models are taken from real world examples. It incudes weather forcasting, predicting markets, beating roulette..ets.
Roulette itself is a fisical system that does depend on external factors wich have to be used as predictors in order to limit its freedom.
Math itself in its pure form is an abstract science and can not be used to beat roulette game, becouse HE is garanted by the same math. Statistics is the same thing. Both this tools can be uppled only to understand fisical aspects of every past and current spin , wich have to be striped down to the variables. Variables themself are triggers just becouse they do pretence to the real physical model of the real phisical roulette wheel you are trying to beat, and not to some ethereal abstractional model based on trends wich can not be predicted.
Following real phisical roulette wheel is called playing, and following its abstraction model based on rendom groops destributions is called gambling. One is a real way to make money in the real world, betting on the real wheel. Other is following gambler fallacy illusorial expectations.
I don’t mean any offence, just saying truth.

Yea Sergyi.
You admit your limited knowledge of probability. In the recent past you posted you don’t know how to bet on the table. Yet in your conclusions you sound like you have a Nobel Prize in probability. Insisting that anybody that doesn’t play like you is doomed. If you are an expert in what you are doing with roulette then stick with it. What business do you have to tell system players that they are wrong? Have you done over 10+ years research?
Have you observed hundreds of thousands of spins to draw conclusions how numbers behave and how triggers are developed? And how virtual bets overcome the HE? Members that talk about that have done their homework. They are not guessing. You are guessing, because you admitted you don’t have knowledge of probability. The others draw conclusions based of long term tested and confirmed facts. Not two months, not 5000 spins, but hundred times that. Or do you think it’s a coincidence? How can something that’s proven each and every time over many years period can be a coincidence?  It’s not.
Many keep bringing up the math and the gaming experts and the fact that they say roulette cannot be won.
Have you heard of any math or gaming expert saying that the only way to win is with physics?  They all generalize that a roulette cannot be won. They don’t make an exception for the physics method. Both statement are simply rumors anyway. Just like Einstein said that the only way to win the roulette is to steal. He didn’t say that only physics can beat it. No math or gaming experts ever said that. It seems that the gaming and physics experts are only in the forums. If that’s the case y don’t they post their credentials? Like A pic. of their Phd in kinetics. At least we would take it seriously if it came from an expert source.
And all the physics experts here don’t talk about their systems. They spend most of their time posting about the pitfalls of math systems, And nothing about the physics system, for others to see and test its validity.
Bottom line is this. You found something that works for you. Then use it and win. And let the experts on the other side win their way. Hovering over this forum and shooting down any post that has to do with systems, is counterproductive. A smart player must have an open mind.
I tried to observe the physics of spinning just the other day in the casino, and all I saw was the dealer spinning the ball with mach-2, hitting the diamond and jumping across the wheel, then hitting the pocket separator and then jumping all over. I couldn’t even imagine trying to make sense out of it. I know. Look for another wheel.
And don’t think that roulette physics is a well secret among the AP’s This page in the pic. is from a book that I bought from Amazon. You know. My curiosity to explore every conceivable method to win.
And has 250 pages explaining the physics method. Tracking, bias,  and everything there is to know on the subject. If everyone bought this book , the casinos would be in trouble.
Well, though it’s a good reference for someone who wants to turn to the physics route to win, I find such methods too complicated compared to the method I’m familiar with. If my methods came to a dead end, then I would considering paying more attention to the book . Thankfully I don’t have to. Keeping things simple it’s a much better alternative.

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Posted: 03 November 2014 06:31 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 243 ]
harryj
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I am not going to repeat Palestis’s words, merely emphasis his last paragraph. The methodology of AP has been known for over 100 years. It is only the birth of the PC and the imrpovement in maths that have made it available to the general public. Not everyone has the abilities to be successful. To those who feel that they could manage the method, I say,” Go for it!!” To the bulk of us who feel that they do not have the abilities, or feel comfortable with the method, I say, ” IT IS NOT THE ONLY WAY TO WIN,” just perhaps a good way.

    Personally I have been studying and playing this game longer than most of you have been alive. I enjoy the way I play. I make no claims to always win, but I have been mostly successful. I am not at heart a gambler. I strive to avoid risk. If I found myself steadily losing I would certainly stop. I am niether stupid nor a loser, and I have a lifetime of experience to draw from. I say,

    PLAY TO WIN!! No matter how!! THERE IS MORE THAN 1 PATH TO SUCCESS.

    Harry

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Posted: 03 November 2014 07:42 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 244 ]
sergiy
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@ palestis.  Do you have only one page of that book? Normall people put the name of autor and the name of the book as refference instead of some rendom page in the middle

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Posted: 03 November 2014 01:10 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 245 ]
palestis
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sergiy - 03 November 2014 07:42 AM

@ palestis.  Do you have only one page of that book? Normall people put the name of autor and the name of the book as refference instead of some rendom page in the middle

Yes Sergiy
I’ll do better than that. I’ll post the picture of the entire book. It also includes some math systems, along with the visual ballistics and biased wheel methods.
So here is an author that he too believes that physics it’s not the only method to win. They are many methods that can win roulette. One of them is VB. The question is, can everybody that reads this book go to a casino and start getting paid? Of course not. Reading a book it’s only the beginning. A general guideline. Not every player has the patience to wait for conditions that bring him closer to success. In your case you have to INVEST TIME to isolate the right wheel. In math based systems, you need patience to wait for the trigger, and find the right progression that’s not too expensive to risk, not to mention the extensive testing required to confirm success . For your information, you must’ve seen how almost all players play roulette. All you have to do is look at a busy roulette table in action. Everybody plays in a way that resembles a group of people running so that they won’t miss the train. For those players (which happen to be 99% of all players), a book doesn’t help . A book like this is aimed for those who are willing to do their homework. Something easier said than done. Because most players associate winning roulette with EASY MONEY. And that’s very far from the truth.  It takes a lot of BRAIN WORK, and unusual length of patience to win.

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Posted: 03 November 2014 05:56 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 246 ]
sergiy
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You are right about patience required.  This game sertainly not for everyone. Ill download a book to have a better look for it. Thanks

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Posted: 03 November 2014 06:11 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 247 ]
palestis
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sergiy - 03 November 2014 05:56 PM

You are right about patience required.  This game sertainly not for everyone. Ill download a book to have a better look for it. Thanks

Can you download it? (for free?). It’s usually for sale as a book. Unless the selling party has an option to buy it thru the download process. Or you have secret ways to download it.  I either got it as a gift or bought it in a yard sale cheap. But since it describes VB and bias methods in great detail it’s a good idea to get it and see if it confirms your thoughts, or it might even add something that you were not aware of.
Learning and improving is a never ending process. Yes patience is a great virtue in roulette, something the majority of players do not have or are not willing to endure. That’s y the casinos don’t worry about losing money from that game. There are enough players to give them money, so that the few that win, don’t make a dent in their profits.

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Posted: 03 November 2014 07:44 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 248 ]
scepticus
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sergiy - 31 October 2014 11:46 AM
scepticus - 31 October 2014 08:20 AM

and ,Harry, Sergy still doesn’t get it .After telling we Method players that methods don’t work he now tells us that they can !! As did Houston and V.B. Meister !!
And they think we are the idiots !!

Scepticus,  we don’t think you guys are idiots or something… you have to understand thats its not personal, as we have never mett personaly you or any other methods players. If we are objecting about something,  its egeinst your guys opinions about the matter that is clear for us and for your own goodness.
Everybody looks first for black/red things, then pattern of numbers..ets. Its just steps in everyone’s personal evolution as roulette player.  You guys, stoped your evolution in the ” system ” level. Instead of looking answer to qwestion ” what” you’re better to ask ” why” and ” when” . Only after these qwestions answered, you should be looking how to explore things you see. So there you arrive to the same ideas you are trying to explore now, but it gonna be more aplicable,  becose you will have idea why something is due to hitt and when its more likely to happen. To get right answers, right questions should be asked.
Yes, Harry, m still lauthing on your statement about condition to become a winner, infact it made my day. Thanks for reminding.


hi Sergy
you are fairly new to this forum or you would know that the AP’s often call us idiots - and worse!  Houston’s last post is an example.
How can you say in most of your posts that methods don’t work ,yet claim that Houston’s five number bet works?It doesn’t make sense does it ? Someday you guys will come round to understand that Probability Theory deals with Likeliehoods - not the Certainty you claim.
Martin Jensens’ book that Palestis mentioned can be bought at The Gambling Bookshop in Las Vegas U.S.A..$14.95 plus postage.I don’t think that the High Stakes Bookshop in London U.K.stocks it .

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Posted: 03 November 2014 08:31 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 249 ]
sergiy
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@Scepticus, thanks for info about the book. I already dowloaded it, had no time to read dow.
I don’t dislike system players, l have been one myself. Yes l was wrong in my assumptions about systems beeng reliable, but its not the reason to attack anyone on publick forums, l think.
About Houston’s method… just take some numbers from real roulette and try it. If you will have not only numbers, but conditions as well, you will see yourself how to make it work for you.

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Posted: 04 November 2014 09:06 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 250 ]
VB Meister
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palestis - 03 November 2014 01:10 PM
sergiy - 03 November 2014 07:42 AM

@ palestis.  Do you have only one page of that book? Normall people put the name of autor and the name of the book as refference instead of some rendom page in the middle

Yes Sergiy
I’ll do better than that. I’ll post the picture of the entire book. It also includes some math systems, along with the visual ballistics and biased wheel methods.
So here is an author that he too believes that physics it’s not the only method to win. They are many methods that can win roulette. One of them is VB. The question is, can everybody that reads this book go to a casino and start getting paid? Of course not. Reading a book it’s only the beginning. A general guideline. Not every player has the patience to wait for conditions that bring him closer to success. In your case you have to INVEST TIME to isolate the right wheel. In math based systems, you need patience to wait for the trigger, and find the right progression that’s not too expensive to risk, not to mention the extensive testing required to confirm success . For your information, you must’ve seen how almost all players play roulette. All you have to do is look at a busy roulette table in action. Everybody plays in a way that resembles a group of people running so that they won’t miss the train. For those players (which happen to be 99% of all players), a book doesn’t help . A book like this is aimed for those who are willing to do their homework. Something easier said than done. Because most players associate winning roulette with EASY MONEY. And that’s very far from the truth.  It takes a lot of BRAIN WORK, and unusual length of patience to win.

Lol. There are much more advanced vb methods than that. That is pretty old school but still valid. I BET way earlier in the spin. Does his bias play include searching for specific bias caused by specific defects or conditions? Bet it does not. If you were really interested buy LS Vol1 & Vol 2. Much better material.

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Posted: 04 November 2014 05:51 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 251 ]
sergiy
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palestis - 03 November 2014 06:11 PM
sergiy - 03 November 2014 05:56 PM

You are right about patience required.  This game sertainly not for everyone. Ill download a book to have a better look for it. Thanks

Can you download it? (for free?). It’s usually for sale as a book. Unless the selling party has an option to buy it thru the download process. Or you have secret ways to download it.  I either got it as a gift or bought it in a yard sale cheap. But since it describes VB and bias methods in great detail it’s a good idea to get it and see if it confirms your thoughts, or it might even add something that you were not aware of.
Learning and improving is a never ending process. Yes patience is a great virtue in roulette, something the majority of players do not have or are not willing to endure. That’s y the casinos don’t worry about losing money from that game. There are enough players to give them money, so that the few that win, don’t make a dent in their profits.

Everything what is in www is potentially mine . I have my tricks wink

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Posted: 04 November 2014 08:19 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 252 ]
sergiy
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@ palestis,  l had a look on a book. VB is right,  you better get Lourence Scott material if you really wanna get understanding of AP ways. Jensen’s book is not tottal bs, it just don’t gonna make you earn money. Still a good book for a beginning dow, good value for money.
If you wanna explore systems that has higher resistance to fall , look Pierre Basieux books as well. Lourence and Pierre books are enough to make you start to earn. Even only Lourence books are good enough,  but require lots of atention to detail. 
There are others l would reccomend
” computational approach to statistics” jerome.h.klotz
” methods of multivariate analisys”  Alvin C Rencher
This 2 books will teach you how to form and test hypotesys to achieve high confidence level.  First one is written by former bias player. Good news that last 2 books you can easily download, if you don’t find them by any reason, just drop your email, lll send them to you.

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Posted: 05 November 2014 08:31 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 253 ]
palestis
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VB Meister - 04 November 2014 09:06 AM
palestis - 03 November 2014 01:10 PM
sergiy - 03 November 2014 07:42 AM

@
Lol. There are much more advanced vb methods than that. That is pretty old school but still valid. I BET way earlier in the spin. Does his bias play include searching for specific bias caused by specific defects or conditions? Bet it does not. If you were really interested buy LS Vol1 & Vol 2. Much better material.

Actually it devotes a few chapters on bias. These 2 pages are part of it.

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Posted: 05 November 2014 08:41 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 254 ]
palestis
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sergiy - 04 November 2014 08:19 PM

@ palestis,  l had a look on a book. VB is right,  you better get Lourence Scott material if you really wanna get understanding of AP ways. Jensen’s book is not tottal bs, it just don’t gonna make you earn money. Still a good book for a beginning dow, good value for money.
If you wanna explore systems that has higher resistance to fall , look Pierre Basieux books as well. Lourence and Pierre books are enough to make you start to earn. Even only Lourence books are good enough,  but require lots of atention to detail. 
There are others l would reccomend
” computational approach to statistics” jerome.h.klotz
” methods of multivariate analisys”  Alvin C Rencher
This 2 books will teach you how to form and test hypotesys to achieve high confidence level.  First one is written by former bias player. Good news that last 2 books you can easily download, if you don’t find them by any reason, just drop your email, lll send them to you.

Yea Laurence Scott’s book looks interesting at $100 vol.1 and $250 vol. 2.

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Posted: 05 November 2014 11:46 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 255 ]
VB Meister
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palestis - 05 November 2014 08:31 PM
VB Meister - 04 November 2014 09:06 AM
palestis - 03 November 2014 01:10 PM
sergiy - 03 November 2014 07:42 AM

@
Lol. There are much more advanced vb methods than that. That is pretty old school but still valid. I BET way earlier in the spin. Does his bias play include searching for specific bias caused by specific defects or conditions? Bet it does not. If you were really interested buy LS Vol1 & Vol 2. Much better material.

Actually it devotes a few chapters on bias. These 2 pages are part of it.

Uuuhhhmmm….. Is that all? He is only referring to track bias which is for vb. There are many many other bias effects some causing certain numbers to become bias. That is what I thought he would be mentioning…. I thought he would of at least describe how to find bias numbers usng data over 1000’s of spins in other words using standard deviation to determine possible bias numbers but….. Nope, he didn’t and what I expected was old school but it wasn’t even that….

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