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Posted: 17 January 2015 06:33 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 16 ]
Houston
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If I may ask, you say several years ago you witnessed a demonstration by a retired croupier. What type of accuracy rate did he achieve? Did it approach 100%, or was it merely slightly better than random chance?

Here in the States, dice control seems to have been a recent fad, but the remaining proponents don’t appear credible to me. They seem more like degenerate gamblers than disciplined advantage players.

It’s not the croupier that makes it possible.  It’s the wheel.

If a wheel has a strong dominant ball drop (dominant ball diamond) then even novices can hit sections after just 30 minutes of practice.  I can easily demonstrate this on one of my wheels. 

Dealers are not the knowledgeable people that players often believe them to be.  They know very little, if anything about how to actually beat the game.  If you were to ask 100 dealers if they can do it, some would say yes, some would say no, but probably none of them would know the mechanics behind why it can be done.

This type of knowledge is usually guarded by the AP players.  Dealer’s are supposed to be watching the layout, not the wheel.

 


-Houston

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Posted: 17 January 2015 07:42 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 17 ]
polyester
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Houston - 17 January 2015 06:33 PM

It’s not the croupier that makes it possible.  It’s the wheel.

Thanks Houston. I thought he was talking about one of those (mythical?) dealers who can steer the ball on demand.

Dealers are not the knowledgeable people that players often believe them to be.

Dealers are often wrong, but never in doubt, lol.

This type of knowledge is usually guarded by the AP players.

When the APs are conspicuously absent from a discussion, it usually means they don’t care about it, but sometimes it means they care a lot. There are subtle distinctions to indicate the latter, although I usually fail to notice until it’s completely obvious.

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Posted: 17 January 2015 07:55 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 18 ]
scepticus
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sergiy - 17 January 2015 10:45 AM
polyester - 17 January 2015 10:21 AM
Houston - 17 January 2015 09:24 AM

What is amusing is that Scepticus was recently banned for using multiple user names in order to promote his system on Wizardofvegas.com forum

That explains the hostile response when I recently suggested he post there for a mathematical assessment of one of his systems.

Honestly, I think he was banned on a technicality. He joined in late 2013 and posted occasionally, mostly under the Betting Systems section, which carries a warning label there. Then on August 8th last year, he created a “Reducing the House Edge” thread, which was active, but only for a day. That was the last day he posted, then on November 23rd, he bumped the thread to post a link to his site, but he used a newly created account, which violated the rule prohibiting duplicate accounts.

Had he simply used his original account, there shouldn’t have been a problem, but I think they opted to ban both accounts primarily because they were annoyed by the content of his posts. He seemed well-behaved, they just didn’t like his ideas.

That sounds mean! Why they bann the guy who is polite? He could just forget his original account after so long..  Some forums do infact have low torelance after all..

Sergy. You are new to forums or you would understand that they are full of pontificating arseholes.
I was banned from the Wizard Of Vegas forum because of my impatience and frustration . If you look it up it is populated by “knowalls ” who dismiss roulette players as imbeciles because you cannot win a negative expectation game.
And that without any sense of irony as they themselves play a negative expectation game- either Baccarat or Craps !

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Posted: 17 January 2015 07:59 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 19 ]
scepticus
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VB Meister - 17 January 2015 02:56 AM
scepticus - 16 January 2015 10:37 PM
Houston - 16 January 2015 05:03 PM

Hi Shadowman,

I’m Snowman.

WOW ! and a Roulette Pro. too .you ceratinly keep things close to your chest ,  Houston -  Snowman - Caleb - whatever .
and what are your Usernames in other forums ?and how many forums and how many usernames ?
and is Caleb Johnson your real name or another username ?

I do not see the relevance of your questions. So what if he has different usernames on different forums? He isn’t pretending to be different people. As usual your posts are irrelevant and childish.

Actually VB it is you who is being childish. My different usernames didn’t argue for two opposing viewpoints .It was a technicality .
Houston’s did and that is why I think posters should just use one username in all forums they visit . This would avoid the scammers you speak of from misleading bettors. That you don’t see that speaks volumes for your judgement. Or, was it just another of your arselicking posts supporting Houston ?

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Posted: 17 January 2015 08:01 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 20 ]
scepticus
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polyester - 17 January 2015 10:21 AM
Houston - 17 January 2015 09:24 AM

What is amusing is that Scepticus was recently banned for using multiple user names in order to promote his system on Wizardofvegas.com forum

That explains the hostile response when I recently suggested he post there for a mathematical assessment of one of his systems.

Honestly, I think he was banned on a technicality. He joined in late 2013 and posted occasionally, mostly under the Betting Systems section, which carries a warning label there. Then on August 8th last year, he created a “Reducing the House Edge” thread, which was active, but only for a day. That was the last day he posted, then on November 23rd, he bumped the thread to post a link to his site, but he used a newly created account, which violated the rule prohibiting duplicate accounts.

Had he simply used his original account, there shouldn’t have been a problem, but I think they opted to ban both accounts primarily because they were annoyed by the content of his posts. He seemed well-behaved, they just didn’t like his ideas.

.My ” hostile ” attitude to your post was because you came up with the hoary old attitude that a House Advantage cannot be beaten. Anyhow, your post referred to the Wizard of ODDS not the Wizard of VEGAS. Why should I post to the Wizard of Odds when he agrees with me that people can beat roulette using a strategy ? Nor can I post to the Wizard of Vegas since I have been banned .
I am ” hostile ” to ANYONE who cannot understand that Probability is not Reality and condescendingly tell us that it is we who don’t understand Probability Theory. Look up your dictionary for the meaning of the words ” Probability” and “Theory ” and you may understand my viewpoint .
But thanks for your explanation of my being banned .

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Posted: 17 January 2015 08:04 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 21 ]
scepticus
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Houston - 17 January 2015 09:24 AM

What is amusing is that Scepticus was recently banned for using multiple user names in order to promote his system on Wizardofvegas.com forum

As usual Houston you are too quick to jump to conclusions and open your mouth before putting your brain in gear .
I was banned from W.O Vegas forum for the reason polyester gave.Not having posted for a while I forgot my password , tried a few times with no luck- couldn’t get an answer from their bloody robot - so re-entered with another username.The first time I entered a forum I used the Username “Fergus Lee” , forgot my password and re- entered as ” Scepticus ” . And I was the one who pointed that out - no one else !
Unlike you , except for my impatience I use the same username in ALL the forums I enter so my posts are traceable . Unlike yours my views are pretty well consistent and do not blatantly
post contradictory positions which you do .
Anyone can log into the Wizard of Vegas site. scroll down to Betting Systems and look for ” Beating the House Edge “by Scepticus. Whatever your views of that post it does not PROMOTE my system unless you classify ALL posts as doing so. It puts forward an IDEA for discussion and not for profit as you seem to suggest. 
If the charge is impatience then “Guilty m’lud ! “. If it is that I am guilty of deceiving others then “Not Guilty” m’lud ! “
You cannot say the same, Houston, Snowman , whatever.

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Posted: 17 January 2015 08:09 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 22 ]
Houston
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Scepticus,

All is well. We just enjoy giving you hard time.  smile

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“Like a fool, a system player and his money are easily separated!”

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Posted: 17 January 2015 08:19 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 23 ]
polyester
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scepticus - 17 January 2015 08:01 PM

Anyhow, your post referred to the Wizard of ODDS not the Wizard of VEGAS. Why should I post to the Wizard of Odds when he agrees with me that people can beat roulette using a strategy ? Nor can I post to the Wizard of Vegas since I have been banned .

You’re absolutely correct, sorry. I intended Wizard of Vegas, but it was my mistake for sure.

scepticus - 17 January 2015 08:04 PM

Not having posted for a while I forgot my password , tried a few times with no luck- couldn’t get an answer from their bloody robot - so re-entered with another username.

I’m glad you explained. It was clear to me that your second choice of user name was not an attempt to deceive, so you certainly didn’t do anything wrong, and the banning was unwarranted in my opinion. If it’s any consolation, you are completely welcome to post at my forum that doesn’t exist smile

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Posted: 17 January 2015 08:39 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 24 ]
scepticus
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polyester - 17 January 2015 08:19 PM
scepticus - 17 January 2015 08:01 PM

Anyhow, your post referred to the Wizard of ODDS not the Wizard of VEGAS. Why should I post to the Wizard of Odds when he agrees with me that people can beat roulette using a strategy ? Nor can I post to the Wizard of Vegas since I have been banned .

You’re absolutely correct, sorry. I intended Wizard of Vegas, but it was my mistake for sure.

scepticus - 17 January 2015 08:04 PM

Not having posted for a while I forgot my password , tried a few times with no luck- couldn’t get an answer from their bloody robot - so re-entered with another username.

I’m glad you explained. It was clear to me that your second choice of user name was not an attempt to deceive, so you certainly didn’t do anything wrong, and the banning was unwarranted in my opinion. If it’s any consolation, you are completely welcome to post at my forum that doesn’t exist smile

Thank you kind sir for you invitation . please post the name of your non - existent forum . I shall be happy to post much the same ” rubbish ” as I post here and elsewhere !
I would not have a website if the naysayers on this site could have argued against my ideas rather than merely repeating the nonsense that you cannot beat a negative expectatiion game. All gambling is about beating the odds and many people gamble .So why the venom when roulette PLAYERS voice their opinion.No one can foretell an uncertain future with certainty and yet all too many do . All the more galling when some of us actually do profit by doing so and being told that we are ignorant.Profitable ignorance ? Perhaps I’ll make that my catchphrase !

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Posted: 17 January 2015 09:06 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 25 ]
scepticus
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shadowman - 09 January 2015 04:20 AM

Hi there

My name is Mike and I have just joined this forum.  About 3 - 4 years ago I was quite interestd in AP methods, particularly VB.  My first encounter was a few years further back when I met a retired croupier who demonstrated his ability to hit sections on a wheel and I have been interested ever since.

I am fully aware of Bias play and how it has evolved over the years,  and how it would be pretty difficult today to apply the methods that Barnhart? wrote about a few years back. I have a basic understanding of how to go about looking for bias in modern wheels, principally through the posts of snowman at Gamblers glenn and Vls forums.  I think that bias play was probably the first real method to beat the roulette wheel and is likely to be the last.  It is an area that I think i would like to look into in the future.

I have toyed with VB in the past at casinos but the whole experience was inconclusive at the time and I was probably pretty obvious and guilty looking.  I stopped pursuing this avenue as I considered that to further my studies I would need a wheel,  and being a man of limited means decided I would have to wait.  I found that video spins can be great but you cant test out ideas that need controlled conditions, unless you spend hours trawling and editing video clips.

I understand the principles of VB pretty well and have read the likes of Scott, Jafco and Pawlikki.  I am seduced by Foresters VB2 I think that it is very clever and a different approach to other methods that I have read,  regardless of its slow rotor speed limitation, which is no problem to me as I live in the UK,  (at least it wasnt a couple of years back) I also think that this limitation could probably be tweaked out with some thought. using this method I find the jafco videos a snap.  It seems that there are many ways to skin the prediction cat.

One of the reasons that I stopped with VB was that I considered that a game with a single dominant drop was becoming rarer and I didn’t know how to cater for multiple drops.  I had thought of overlapping numbers as a concept, particularly if the wheel is at a sweet speed, and later read something similar in Jafcos material. However I have always considered it would be in the players interest to be able to estimate which diamond would hit, if they could do this then they could go with the diamond with the least random scatter and only bet those spins,  surely this would increase their edge.  Ideally to know where on the diamond it would hit would be a bonus. allegedly computers can do this,  but I am convinced that the wheel will also tell it in the simple patterns that the ball makes at certain points during the spin.  I have also heard rumours that there are people that can do this, so I figure that I am on the right line.  of course without a wheel there isn’t an easy way to test these ideas out.

This Christmas,  right out of the blue,  my girlfriend, bought me a secondhand wheel.  to you folks it may be a nothing,  but to me it is perfect.  as far as I can tell it is a Cammegh connosiuer.  the velstone ball track may need a little attention but the rotor bearing is great,  way better than Stephanos Mk7 Huxley.(on his videos)  there is slight damage to the cone and a few scrapes around the outside,plus a chip in the bowl, but I am more than happy,  particularly as they were the wheels of choice at my local casino.  I reckon that I have learnt more just looking at and cleaning this thing, over the last couple of weeks, than many years of looking at videos and reading.  So now my interest in the subject has been re ignited.

I do worry that studying VB now puts me slightly late at the table,  I suspect that I am on the cheese course,  but still have coffee to go and with luck a bloody good speaker who will take hours.

I have tried to be honest and frank about where I am in roulette,  I know my limitations in knowledge and abilities and I don’t want to BS anyone here.  I also will have a couple of questions that I will bring up in separate threads.

Mike

Sorry for the interruptions Mike. You were saying ?

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Posted: 18 January 2015 04:18 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 26 ]
shadowman
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Hi there

@Birima , thanks for the comments, and yes it was really nice of her to buy me a wheel,  I don’t know what I did to deserve that, you never know perhaps its a guilt thing that I don’t know about lol.

@ Houston I figured that you were Snowman,  you and VB meister were part of the reason that I was interested in this forum, as you have both given some interesting little nuggets to think about.  I have corresponded with you before, and I was thinking this weekend as to how I can practice your counting backwards method on my wheel in a faster and sure fire way,  which I am quite looking forward to. 
Could you also let me know the thread where you talk about betting the last five numbers spun, please as a search doesn’t seem to deliver.  I just wanted to read your discussion as to why that method may help to nullify the house edge.  I have read VBs thread and understand the reasons, but I wanted to read the original post.

@Polyester Believe me I am no expert in VB I understand the principles,  although I am sure that the pro players use more than the material that is available,  or I am just crap at it.  For example I have always felt that there must be a way to estimate which diamond will hit,  or perhaps which diamonds aren’t likely to hit.  Scott talks about it in his first book with crossover analysis.  If you only bet on the diamond with the least scatter then surely you would have more of an edge. ( I could be totally wrong and it could be my ignorance,  but this seems to be an obvious fact. )  I think with VB you take the basics and find your own way.  Of course I am only talking about the prediction side,  playing in a casino is a whole different game.  It is also from playing in a casino that you see the limitations of published material ,  like I say it seems you find your own way and little nuggets from the likes of VB and Houston, and possibly roulettedealer, help to bring fresh ideas into my head.

The croupier that I saw, hit numbers in a five number sector, and I called out the numbers before he spun the ball,  I called about half a dozen numbers, and he was never more than 2 away.  At that time I didn’t realise that this was possible and without the knowledge of tilted wheels and the like it was amazing to see. Although I did suss out that he needed to wait until the numbers were at a certain position before he threw.  Houston is right about the wheel being the key,  and I suspect that this old boy knew that.  Also it wasn’t in a casino,  and it was an older style wheel,  he wasn’t sure if he could do it with the more modern wheels, because of the scatter. Roulettedealer on this forum claims that he doesn’t need a dominant drop on a wheel to do this…...I sure would like to see that.

Re dice control,  you can control the dice but the methods are illegal in the casinos,  check out material by Steve Forte, they need plenty of misdirection to pull off in the casino.  then there are the legal methods which are unproven that the likes of Frank Scoblete promote.  If these methods work then it is only over a large sampling that you see the results,  there is a guy,  I can look out his website if you like,  who is trying to be a little more experimental to see if you can control the dice in that manner…..last time I looked it was inconclusive.

Re the different names of members here,  I have always been called shadowman on all forums that i have been on,  I truly cant be arsed to change it.

Mike

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Posted: 18 January 2015 05:19 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 27 ]
AP2012
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Hello Mike ...

Snowman write about the past 5 numbers method at wizard of odds forum ” The Truth, In a Way, The Past Numbers To Have Hit Do Matter “

Here is the link
http://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/tables/2825-the-truth-in-a-way-the-past-numbers-to-have-hit-do-matter/

You should read scotty81s reply at page 7 (Laurance Scott) that agree with Keyser (Snowman) but ther is some exceptions.
Like you need a wheel with a dominant drop and a chi square around 55 and so on ... for the method to work ...


Cheers

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Posted: 18 January 2015 05:39 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 28 ]
Realplayer26
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Ok i also discused about that with Snowman. Bur lets think this way - why then 5 not 4 not 6 or some other number ? I analysed with bias program many thousands of spins from real casinos and created for miself more realistick law which number have more chances to be hited and that law really gives advantage but law is always corected by past numbers sequence, so that is not universal law but some kind functtion.

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Posted: 18 January 2015 05:40 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 29 ]
Realplayer26
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Realplayer26 - 18 January 2015 05:39 AM

Ok i also discused about that with Snowman. But lets think this way - why then 5 not 4 not 6 or some other number ? I analysed with bias program many thousands of spins from real casinos and created for miself more realistick law which number have more chances to be hited and that law really gives advantage but law is always corected by past numbers sequence, so that is not universal law but some kind functtion.

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Posted: 18 January 2015 05:48 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 30 ]
AP2012
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Realplayer26 - 18 January 2015 05:39 AM

Ok i also discused about that with Snowman. Bur lets think this way - why then 5 not 4 not 6 or some other number ? I analysed with bias program many thousands of spins from real casinos and created for miself more realistick law which number have more chances to be hited and that law really gives advantage but law is always corected by past numbers sequence, so that is not universal law but some kind functtion.

You have the peak at 678 and the attack window is three attempts after 5 uniq numbers.
Why and how they correlate you have to ask Snowman - but what i have read so does it depend on a slight bias wheel with a dominant drop point.

Cheers

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