• Roulette Forum
  • Craps Forum
  • TwentyOne Forum
Welcome to RouletteForum.com
Notice: 5/8/2017 -- RouletteForum.com is closed to new posting and will remain in read-only mode for 30 days. If you wish to preserve any of your posts, do so soon.
   
 
risk of ruin qwestion
Posted: 14 January 2015 10:15 AM   [ Ignore ]
sergiy
Sr. Member
Total Posts:  1603
Joined  2014-01-02
RankRankRankRank




Does anyone know how to calculate risk of ruin for roulette? Assume we know our edge, let it be “E”, we are betting ” N ” numbers every spin and we have ” B ” units as our bank. And finaly we are doing it for “T” trials. Need formula for excel..

Profile
 
 
Posted: 14 January 2015 05:33 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1 ]
scepticus
Sr. Member
Total Posts:  941
Joined  2012-10-02
RankRankRankRank




sergiy - 14 January 2015 10:15 AM

Does anyone know how to calculate risk of ruin for roulette? Assume we know our edge, let it be “E”, we are betting ” N ” numbers every spin and we have ” B ” units as our bank. And finaly we are doing it for “T” trials. Need formula for excel..

I don’t know hwo to do such calculations, Sergy. I use the calculations of a guy called John Jackson who posted an article in the UK Smartersig site. A site for horse race bettors in the U.k.. It was entitled ” The Gambler’s Ruin ” and he detailed how he did it and gave a chart for the various bets and odds.
Obviously, I cannot give you his chart but you could subscribe to the site for a one month subs. to obtain his article But it does need high level maths knowledge. He built on the work of two Americans Srewart Ethier and Davar Khoshnevisan.I don’t know if you could access their work directly.
Good Luck in your quest !

Profile
 
 
Posted: 14 January 2015 05:38 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 2 ]
Houston
Sr. Member
Total Posts:  725
Joined  2013-06-21
RankRankRankRank




Sergiy,

I’m currently traveling.  I’ll catch up with you on Skype when I get back in five or so days.

The formula is not as simple as you might think.

For now, I’d suggest leaving it out, unless you plan on having very large data samples.  Otherwise it will give you a false sense of security.

 Signature 

“Like a fool, a system player and his money are easily separated!”

Profile
 
 
Posted: 14 January 2015 05:49 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 3 ]
sergiy
Sr. Member
Total Posts:  1603
Joined  2014-01-02
RankRankRankRank




scepticus - 14 January 2015 05:33 PM
sergiy - 14 January 2015 10:15 AM

Does anyone know how to calculate risk of ruin for roulette? Assume we know our edge, let it be “E”, we are betting ” N ” numbers every spin and we have ” B ” units as our bank. And finaly we are doing it for “T” trials. Need formula for excel..

I don’t know hwo to do such calculations, Sergy. I use the calculations of a guy called John Jackson who posted an article in the UK Smartersig site. A site for horse race bettors in the U.k.. It was entitled ” The Gambler’s Ruin ” and he detailed how he did it and gave a chart for the various bets and odds.
Obviously, I cannot give you his chart but you could subscribe to the site for a one month subs. to obtain his article But it does need high level maths knowledge. He built on the work of two Americans Srewart Ethier and Davar Khoshnevisan.I don’t know if you could access their work directly.
Good Luck in your quest !

Thanks for a hint, lll try to find it;). You are right,bro,its not easy…Already spent entire day looking web,but only finding calculations for even money bets assuming not “fair” game…
Do you play horses as well? If yes, could you please advice me a couple of best books about it? l’m looking for ways to treat sports betting as trading. Thanks.

Profile
 
 
Posted: 14 January 2015 05:51 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 4 ]
sergiy
Sr. Member
Total Posts:  1603
Joined  2014-01-02
RankRankRankRank




Houston - 14 January 2015 05:38 PM

Sergiy,

I’m currently traveling.  I’ll catch up with you on Skype when I get back in five or so days.

The formula is not as simple as you might think.

For now, I’d suggest leaving it out, unless you plan on having very large data samples.  Otherwise it will give you a false sense of security.

Thank you,looking forward for it.

Profile
 
 
Posted: 14 January 2015 06:50 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 5 ]
scepticus
Sr. Member
Total Posts:  941
Joined  2012-10-02
RankRankRankRank




sergiy - 14 January 2015 05:49 PM
scepticus - 14 January 2015 05:33 PM
sergiy - 14 January 2015 10:15 AM

Does anyone know how to calculate risk of ruin for roulette? Assume we know our edge, let it be “E”, we are betting ” N ” numbers every spin and we have ” B ” units as our bank. And finaly we are doing it for “T” trials. Need formula for excel..

I don’t know hwo to do such calculations, Sergy. I use the calculations of a guy called John Jackson who posted an article in the UK Smartersig site. A site for horse race bettors in the U.k.. It was entitled ” The Gambler’s Ruin ” and he detailed how he did it and gave a chart for the various bets and odds.
Obviously, I cannot give you his chart but you could subscribe to the site for a one month subs. to obtain his article But it does need high level maths knowledge. He built on the work of two Americans Srewart Ethier and Davar Khoshnevisan.I don’t know if you could access their work directly.
Good Luck in your quest !

Thanks for a hint, lll try to find it;). You are right,bro,its not easy…Already spent entire day looking web,but only finding calculations for even money bets assuming not “fair” game…
Do you play horses as well? If yes, could you please advice me a couple of best books about it? l’m looking for ways to treat sports betting as trading. Thanks.

I don’t bet on the horses much nowadays Sergy .Just in the Flat Season in the U.K.. I have bought a lot of gambling books in my time but found that they mainly give the same advice . There was no internet when I started betting ,Sergy. You guys have got it easy when you can access much free advice on the internet.

Profile
 
 
Posted: 14 January 2015 06:53 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 6 ]
Houston
Sr. Member
Total Posts:  725
Joined  2013-06-21
RankRankRankRank




There are formulas, but you’ll find that you have to add additional formulas that represent confidence levels based on visual observations of the current conditions.

 Signature 

“Like a fool, a system player and his money are easily separated!”

Profile
 
 
Posted: 14 January 2015 08:23 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 7 ]
sergiy
Sr. Member
Total Posts:  1603
Joined  2014-01-02
RankRankRankRank




Houston - 14 January 2015 06:53 PM

There are formulas, but you’ll find that you have to add additional formulas that represent confidence levels based on visual observations of the current conditions.

Right to the point! This is exactly what lm looking for!!!

Profile
 
 
Posted: 14 January 2015 08:27 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 8 ]
sergiy
Sr. Member
Total Posts:  1603
Joined  2014-01-02
RankRankRankRank




scepticus - 14 January 2015 06:50 PM
sergiy - 14 January 2015 05:49 PM
scepticus - 14 January 2015 05:33 PM
sergiy - 14 January 2015 10:15 AM

Does anyone know how to calculate risk of ruin for roulette? Assume we know our edge, let it be “E”, we are betting ” N ” numbers every spin and we have ” B ” units as our bank. And finaly we are doing it for “T” trials. Need formula for excel..

I don’t know hwo to do such calculations, Sergy. I use the calculations of a guy called John Jackson who posted an article in the UK Smartersig site. A site for horse race bettors in the U.k.. It was entitled ” The Gambler’s Ruin ” and he detailed how he did it and gave a chart for the various bets and odds.
Obviously, I cannot give you his chart but you could subscribe to the site for a one month subs. to obtain his article But it does need high level maths knowledge. He built on the work of two Americans Srewart Ethier and Davar Khoshnevisan.I don’t know if you could access their work directly.
Good Luck in your quest !

Thanks for a hint, lll try to find it;). You are right,bro,its not easy…Already spent entire day looking web,but only finding calculations for even money bets assuming not “fair” game…
Do you play horses as well? If yes, could you please advice me a couple of best books about it? l’m looking for ways to treat sports betting as trading. Thanks.

I don’t bet on the horses much nowadays Sergy .Just in the Flat Season in the U.K.. I have bought a lot of gambling books in my time but found that they mainly give the same advice . There was no internet when I started betting ,Sergy. You guys have got it easy when you can access much free advice on the internet.

Its amazing to see that there are entire communities of likeminded people over the internet. Individuals like you and me with same interests can freely communicate without even knowing each other personally! ! Internet changed our life for better .. big time.

Profile
 
 
   
 
 
Online roulette is also very popular in Australia with many of the internet casino brands directly targeting Australians, resulting in a huge choice of roulette sites available to Australians. CasinoReef recommends Ruby Fortune casino as one of the top online roulette casinos available in AUD. For New Zealanders, CasinoKiwi recommends Jackpot city casino as the most popular choice for new Zealanders playing roulette online.