So I think it should be an easy statement and sell to all the high end thinkers in the
forum that one should not ever play a martingale. You would throw everything you have
at the agreement against. And the truth is that everyone knows or believes that somehow
this will lead to catastrophe, for obvious reasons.
Correct?
So then we advance to the reverse martingale. Which nobody likes because no one knows where
to end.
So here is a typical run with a negative progression. The paradigm is always to win 1 unit. Then
begin again. So we play and win. Maybe we win 10 or 20 units. Then comes the tough streak where
the escalating bets, and total in the red, grow quickly. It seems to me that there are several parts of
out brain. And when we’re sweating it out, we’re looking to the end of our money, our bank, whatever
we set as the failsafe of out progression.
In all honesty what I believe and imagine is that the gross amount we grow negative in our play is
usually greater than our 1 unit wins to that point. IN other words, we may be chasing our progression
and are -25 or -30 units? Or more? And to that point we are negative more that what we earned and
then some.
This is another place we find ourselves that almost seems guaranteed. In a world of hurt.
If we were playing the positive progression, we would be accumulating 1 unit losses every time we
lost a progression. Which would be often.. But then when we started winning, the crazy size of our
win increase would quickly catch up with what our paper profit should be.
in other words, if you played the neg progression you might be ahead 10 units. Now you are negative
-10 units. So you escalate your compound bets to “earn” those 10 units (plus the 1 unit for the current
progression.) That is not so hard to do. And you know where to stop. And start over again.
But this gives you the stopping point. I imagine at times that some form of a fib progression might
make it a little friendlier, since you don’t blow out of every progression every time. But haven’t
gone that far.
Of course, if you don’t like or believe this then you just have to go back to #1 and play the traditional
martingale….. You believed it was deadly. Up to you.