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LONG TERM WINNING
Posted: 03 May 2015 08:32 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 16 ]
scepticus
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Houston - 03 May 2015 12:37 AM

Scepticus,

This is Filles’ thread.  Please stop interrupting.  If you feel that you need attention then perhaps you should start your own thread.

Then why mention scepticus at all ?If you mention me then why I am not entitled to have my say ? The reason you guys don’t understand Probability Theory is that you don’t actually use it in your betting - you only estimate where the ball is likely to end up . So stop your patronising nonsense .. You know you cannot defend your ridiculous Last Five Numbers Bet and so don’t want it to be discussed.

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Posted: 03 May 2015 08:45 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 17 ]
scepticus
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Chip-hunter - 03 May 2015 05:59 AM

According to the standard deviation, the player should play the numbers and not the outside bet. (if the player really want to play and even if the edge is smaller on EC) .

For example, 3/4 of the players will lose between only 500 and 1000 spins while it will take 20000 spins to see 3/4 of the players lose on straight. So yes of course last five numbers bet could show a better result.

Scepticus, you use to talk about certainty and it is just a fork of standard deviation where the player can just hope to be on the good side of the curve… If he wants to last the more longer it is possible, he has to bet one straight. The player will generally not accept that the fact he is in the good side of the curve is due to luck only. He’ll always think it is due to his system or his trigger…

The ” certainty ” in Probability Theory arises when it is deemed that the probability is so small that it is allocated a zero. This does NOT mean that it is impossible for it to occur - only that it is highly unlikely to occur. So a ” mathematical impossibility ” is not necessarily an ACTUAL impossibility which you AP guys continually claim. When the ” mathematically impossible ” happens it is referred to as a ” Rare Event” and ” Rare Events ” cannot happen unless it is possible that they can happen.

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Posted: 03 May 2015 09:01 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 18 ]
Chip-hunter
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I mean all players ‘s results are limited if they play a mathematical system in a fork of standard deviation, the dispersion around the mean. You can survive by luck after x spins, that does not mean that another player that play same system but with another serie will win also. You can just expect to be lucky, but after a certain ammount of spin, the standard deviation ‘s fork will tend to decrease and eliminate all survivors to keep everyone close to -2.7%...

So yes you can claim to beat the roulette if you play a spin in a month and you can resist all your life, but you don’t beat the roulette and you’ll still find your place in the standard deviation ‘s fork that represents the volatility of the game.

Ap’ers can break that fork, a bad Vb player can lose much more than -2.7% if he can’t catch the righ rev, and he can easily overcome +xsd if he plays right .

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Posted: 03 May 2015 09:14 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 19 ]
Chip-hunter
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The ” certainty ” in Probability Theory arises when it is deemed that the probability is so small that it is allocated a zero. This does NOT mean that it is impossible for it to occur - only that it is highly unlikely to occur.

Here it is the same, it only worth in the case you say it’s going to happen right now.

For example a serie of 10 blacks have 1/1024 to occur. It worths if you say “ok now ten black are coming”, and you can’t deny that anyway the next following 10 spins that have also 1/1024 will occur.

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Posted: 03 May 2015 09:28 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 20 ]
scepticus
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Chip-hunter - 03 May 2015 09:14 AM

The ” certainty ” in Probability Theory arises when it is deemed that the probability is so small that it is allocated a zero. This does NOT mean that it is impossible for it to occur - only that it is highly unlikely to occur.

Here it is the same, it only worth in the case you say it’s going to happen right now.

For example a serie of 10 blacks have 1/1024 to occur. It worths if you say “ok now ten black are coming”, and you can’t deny that anyway the next following 10 spins that have also 1/1024 will occur.

In other words ” anything can happen ” ?

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Posted: 03 May 2015 09:35 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 21 ]
Chip-hunter
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Anything can happen, still it will be under the standard deviation ‘s fork. You can easily admit that a player cannot win 2000EC bet/ 2000? right?

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Posted: 03 May 2015 09:36 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 22 ]
sergiy
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scepticus - 03 May 2015 09:28 AM
Chip-hunter - 03 May 2015 09:14 AM

The ” certainty ” in Probability Theory arises when it is deemed that the probability is so small that it is allocated a zero. This does NOT mean that it is impossible for it to occur - only that it is highly unlikely to occur.

Here it is the same, it only worth in the case you say it’s going to happen right now.

For example a serie of 10 blacks have 1/1024 to occur. It worths if you say “ok now ten black are coming”, and you can’t deny that anyway the next following 10 spins that have also 1/1024 will occur.

In other words ” anything can happen ” ?

Yes. On roulette game ” anything can happen” wich not aler basic probability of that event to happer. If you bet rendom groops, like outside chances for exemple.  Means previous spins have no affect in this case. But if you start to predict events with a method based on phisics,  you may limit degrees of freedom of system ( ball / wheel dealler). In this case you deal with distances ball may make, so its not that random anymore. You still play ” random ” game when predict,  but you play it with same pay off on smaller sector. Example would be 27 numbers instead of 37 in 90% of cases.  Basically , eliminating 10 pokets from the game you don’t care much about zero or hous edge anymore.

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Posted: 03 May 2015 10:56 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 23 ]
scepticus
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Chip-hunter - 03 May 2015 09:35 AM

Anything can happen, still it will be under the standard deviation ‘s fork. You can easily admit that a player cannot win 2000EC bet/ 2000? right?

no. You simply cannot argue that something that can happen cannot happen.

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Posted: 03 May 2015 11:01 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 24 ]
scepticus
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sergiy - 03 May 2015 09:36 AM
scepticus - 03 May 2015 09:28 AM
Chip-hunter - 03 May 2015 09:14 AM

The ” certainty ” in Probability Theory arises when it is deemed that the probability is so small that it is allocated a zero. This does NOT mean that it is impossible for it to occur - only that it is highly unlikely to occur.

Here it is the same, it only worth in the case you say it’s going to happen right now.

For example a serie of 10 blacks have 1/1024 to occur. It worths if you say “ok now ten black are coming”, and you can’t deny that anyway the next following 10 spins that have also 1/1024 will occur.

In other words ” anything can happen ” ?

Yes. On roulette game ” anything can happen” wich not aler basic probability of that event to happer. If you bet rendom groops, like outside chances for exemple.  Means previous spins have no affect in this case. But if you start to predict events with a method based on phisics,  you may limit degrees of freedom of system ( ball / wheel dealler). In this case you deal with distances ball may make, so its not that random anymore. You still play ” random ” game when predict,  but you play it with same pay off on smaller sector. Example would be 27 numbers instead of 37 in 90% of cases.  Basically , eliminating 10 pokets from the game you don’t care much about zero or hous edge anymore.

so just where in your AP do you use your calculations of probability ?You guys previously said that you calculated Standard Deviations on a number of your parameters .so tell me where you actually use these .

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Posted: 03 May 2015 11:35 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 25 ]
Houston
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You guys previously said that you calculated Standard Deviations on a number of your parameters .so tell me where you actually use these

.

When measuring the strength of a bet prediction or the strength of a biased number prediction the standard deviation is calculated on a spreadsheet and graphed.

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Posted: 03 May 2015 11:56 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 26 ]
sergiy
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scepticus - 03 May 2015 11:01 AM
sergiy - 03 May 2015 09:36 AM
scepticus - 03 May 2015 09:28 AM
Chip-hunter - 03 May 2015 09:14 AM

The ” certainty ” in Probability Theory arises when it is deemed that the probability is so small that it is allocated a zero. This does NOT mean that it is impossible for it to occur - only that it is highly unlikely to occur.

Here it is the same, it only worth in the case you say it’s going to happen right now.

For example a serie of 10 blacks have 1/1024 to occur. It worths if you say “ok now ten black are coming”, and you can’t deny that anyway the next following 10 spins that have also 1/1024 will occur.

In other words ” anything can happen ” ?

Yes. On roulette game ” anything can happen” wich not aler basic probability of that event to happer. If you bet rendom groops, like outside chances for exemple.  Means previous spins have no affect in this case. But if you start to predict events with a method based on phisics,  you may limit degrees of freedom of system ( ball / wheel dealler). In this case you deal with distances ball may make, so its not that random anymore. You still play ” random ” game when predict,  but you play it with same pay off on smaller sector. Example would be 27 numbers instead of 37 in 90% of cases.  Basically , eliminating 10 pokets from the game you don’t care much about zero or hous edge anymore.

so just where in your AP do you use your calculations of probability ?You guys previously said that you calculated Standard Deviations on a number of your parameters .so tell me where you actually use these .

Sometimes l wonder, do you really read what l have written? On distances ball makes from some point in the spin till the end.

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Posted: 03 May 2015 12:01 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 27 ]
scepticus
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sergiy - 03 May 2015 11:56 AM
scepticus - 03 May 2015 11:01 AM
sergiy - 03 May 2015 09:36 AM
scepticus - 03 May 2015 09:28 AM
Chip-hunter - 03 May 2015 09:14 AM

The ” certainty ” in Probability Theory arises when it is deemed that the probability is so small that it is allocated a zero. This does NOT mean that it is impossible for it to occur - only that it is highly unlikely to occur.

Here it is the same, it only worth in the case you say it’s going to happen right now.

For example a serie of 10 blacks have 1/1024 to occur. It worths if you say “ok now ten black are coming”, and you can’t deny that anyway the next following 10 spins that have also 1/1024 will occur.

In other words ” anything can happen ” ?

Yes. On roulette game ” anything can happen” wich not aler basic probability of that event to happer. If you bet rendom groops, like outside chances for exemple.  Means previous spins have no affect in this case. But if you start to predict events with a method based on phisics,  you may limit degrees of freedom of system ( ball / wheel dealler). In this case you deal with distances ball may make, so its not that random anymore. You still play ” random ” game when predict,  but you play it with same pay off on smaller sector. Example would be 27 numbers instead of 37 in 90% of cases.  Basically , eliminating 10 pokets from the game you don’t care much about zero or hous edge anymore.

so just where in your AP do you use your calculations of probability ?You guys previously said that you calculated Standard Deviations on a number of your parameters .so tell me where you actually use these .

Sometimes l wonder, do you really read what l have written? On distances ball makes from some point in the spin till the end.

So you don’t use Standard Deviations then ?

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Posted: 03 May 2015 12:08 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 28 ]
scepticus
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Houston - 03 May 2015 11:35 AM

You guys previously said that you calculated Standard Deviations on a number of your parameters .so tell me where you actually use these

.

When measuring the strength of a bet prediction or the strength of a biased number prediction the standard deviation is calculated on a spreadsheet and graphed.

But that is BEFORE you approach the table so
1 ) you don’t now need to wheel track because you have already established the area where the ball will land, or
2 ) your spreadsheet can be rendered useless if your wheel tracking doesn’t agree with it .
You guys argued before that you used SD AFTER you calculated AT the table -  not BEFORE.
So do you or don’t you use SD AT the table ?

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Posted: 03 May 2015 12:30 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 29 ]
Houston
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There’s no reason for me to calculate SD at the table.

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Posted: 03 May 2015 12:49 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 30 ]
scepticus
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Houston - 03 May 2015 12:30 PM

There’s no reason for me to calculate SD at the table.

And that is because all you do is estimate where the ball will land ?

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