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Is my reasoning correct?
Posted: 03 January 2016 09:26 PM   [ Ignore ]
Nessie162
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So I’m a total newbie to any sorts of roulettes.
I have recently started playing this very specific online roulette.
Its game related. You deposit your items from that game in exchange for points. You bet with the points. If you accumulate enough points you can get more items. Nice, simple and fun, yet real money is involved as you have to buy the items for the game in the first place.
Anyway, There are only 15 numbers 0-14.

With 0 obviously being Green
Red: 1-7
Black: 8-14

You can only place bets on the colours. I don’t have a clue what the payouts are for a typical roulette, but for this one its x2 if its red/black and x14 if it’s green.
Now the % chances for each colour rolling are 46.5/7/46.5, right? If the numbers are generated randomly?
The site lets me bet on any colour I want. I can bet on 1 or all 3 of them.

Now this is where I get confused. Let’s say I bet on both BLACK and GREEN. Are my chances of winning 53% ?
Let me show you a screen…
RVIBs.jpg
In this case I put a bet of $2 on green and $14 on Black.
Regardless if the site rolls black or green I will be in profit.
If it’s green I would get 14*$2 = $28 - $14 = $14 profit.
If it’s black I would get 2*$14 = $28 - $2 = $26 profit.

The chances of green or black rolling are 8/15, so my question is, if I bet on both colours, am I more likely to win?
Now my brain tells me having better odds than the “house” is not possible, hence they opened that betting website in the first place. Yet I can’t find the flaw in my reasoning, and was wondering if it’s my fault or if there really isn’t any.

Thanks in advance smile

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Posted: 03 January 2016 10:27 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1 ]
sergiy
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Nessie162 - 03 January 2016 09:26 PM

So I’m a total newbie to any sorts of roulettes.
I have recently started playing this very specific online roulette.
Its game related. You deposit your items from that game in exchange for points. You bet with the points. If you accumulate enough points you can get more items. Nice, simple and fun, yet real money is involved as you have to buy the items for the game in the first place.
Anyway, There are only 15 numbers 0-14.

With 0 obviously being Green
Red: 1-7
Black: 8-14

You can only place bets on the colours. I don’t have a clue what the payouts are for a typical roulette, but for this one its x2 if its red/black and x14 if it’s green.
Now the % chances for each colour rolling are 46.5/7/46.5, right? If the numbers are generated randomly?
The site lets me bet on any colour I want. I can bet on 1 or all 3 of them.

Now this is where I get confused. Let’s say I bet on both BLACK and GREEN. Are my chances of winning 53% ?
Let me show you a screen…
RVIBs.jpg
In this case I put a bet of $2 on green and $14 on Black.
Regardless if the site rolls black or green I will be in profit.
If it’s green I would get 14*$2 = $28 - $14 = $14 profit.
If it’s black I would get 2*$14 = $28 - $2 = $26 profit.

The chances of green or black rolling are 8/15, so my question is, if I bet on both colours, am I more likely to win?
Now my brain tells me having better odds than the “house” is not possible, hence they opened that betting website in the first place. Yet I can’t find the flaw in my reasoning, and was wondering if it’s my fault or if there really isn’t any.

Thanks in advance smile

l was not reading in detail,  but there are 15 posible numbers to choose from, right? They pay 14 on hitting the number and only allow you to cover number if it’s green, others to be covered as color ( 7 numbers at ones). 7/15 is not 1/2 , same as 1/15 is not 1/14.  It’s a theft. If it’s random you are doomed to loose. Avoid.
Read book of Uspenski ” introduction to math probability” ...they learn   it in uni… it’s a good read to help you resolve qwestion like this by yourself. Only downside… it will explode your brain. Lol

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Posted: 03 January 2016 10:36 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 2 ]
Nessie162
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Joined  2016-01-03
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sergiy - 03 January 2016 10:27 PM

l was not reading in detail,  but there are 15 posible numbers to choose from, right? They pay 14 on hitting the number and only allow you to cover number if it’s green, others to be covered as color ( 7 numbers at ones). 7/15 is not 1/2 , same as 1/15 is not 1/14.  It’s a theft. If it’s random you are doomed to loose. Avoid.
Read book of Uspenski ” introduction to math probability” ...they learn   it in uni… it’s a good read to help you resolve qwestion like this by yourself. Only downside… it will explode your brain. Lol

That’s what I mean. If I can bet on that 7/15 and 1/15 at the same time, shouldn’t that give me 8/15 chances of winning? Mathematically speaking of course…
And I’ll check the book out, thanks :D

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Posted: 04 January 2016 06:40 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 3 ]
sergiy
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Nessie162 - 03 January 2016 10:36 PM
sergiy - 03 January 2016 10:27 PM

l was not reading in detail,  but there are 15 posible numbers to choose from, right? They pay 14 on hitting the number and only allow you to cover number if it’s green, others to be covered as color ( 7 numbers at ones). 7/15 is not 1/2 , same as 1/15 is not 1/14.  It’s a theft. If it’s random you are doomed to loose. Avoid.
Read book of Uspenski ” introduction to math probability” ...they learn   it in uni… it’s a good read to help you resolve qwestion like this by yourself. Only downside… it will explode your brain. Lol

That’s what I mean. If I can bet on that 7/15 and 1/15 at the same time, shouldn’t that give me 8/15 chances of winning? Mathematically speaking of course…
And I’ll check the book out, thanks :D

looking from the point of math you are short of 1/15 in payment , whatever you bet. It’s worst then double zero American wheel . Lern math and not let others deceive you.  Odds is just egeinst you in unprecedented way…it’s like to have 3 zeroes there, or worst. It’s not about how many numbers you bet but what is your expected return on your bet. And yours is negative no matter what. Read the book.

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Posted: 04 January 2016 08:04 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 4 ]
VB Meister
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Nessie162 - 03 January 2016 10:36 PM
sergiy - 03 January 2016 10:27 PM

l was not reading in detail,  but there are 15 posible numbers to choose from, right? They pay 14 on hitting the number and only allow you to cover number if it’s green, others to be covered as color ( 7 numbers at ones). 7/15 is not 1/2 , same as 1/15 is not 1/14.  It’s a theft. If it’s random you are doomed to loose. Avoid.
Read book of Uspenski ” introduction to math probability” ...they learn   it in uni… it’s a good read to help you resolve qwestion like this by yourself. Only downside… it will explode your brain. Lol

That’s what I mean. If I can bet on that 7/15 and 1/15 at the same time, shouldn’t that give me 8/15 chances of winning? Mathematically speaking of course…
And I’ll check the book out, thanks :D

See it as two seperate bets you are playing. That means 7/15 and 1/15. Looking at the payout table and HE, you will loose on each bet seperately in the longrun.

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Posted: 07 January 2016 11:38 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 5 ]
The Midnight Skulker
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Nessie162 - 03 January 2016 09:26 PM

In this case I put a bet of $2 on green and $14 on Black.
Regardless if the site rolls black or green I will be in profit.
If it’s green I would get 14*$2 = $28 - $14 = $14 profit.
If it’s black I would get 2*$14 = $28 - $2 = $26 profit.

Are you sure about this?  Specifically, are you paid 14 or 2 to 1 and not 14 or 2 for 1?  Even more specifically, do you get back your original wager along with the payoff, or is the payoff all you get?  In either case your profit calculations above don’t make sense (although the one for a green winner happens to get the right answer if you’re paid 14 to 1).  I’m betting you’re really paying $16/spin and getting back $28 when green or black wins.  If I’m right the house edge (HE) is 6.67%.  If I’m wrong and you really do get your original wager back when it wins then it’s a fair game (i.e. zero HE).

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Prepare to die.

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Posted: 08 January 2016 02:37 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 6 ]
VB Meister
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If HE is 0 then the game would seem to be fair BUT because rng ie slot machine there most probably is a much higher unseen HE.

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Posted: 13 January 2016 09:21 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 7 ]
The Midnight Skulker
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VB Meister - 08 January 2016 02:37 AM

If HE is 0 then the game would seem to be fair BUT because rng ie slot machine there most probably is a much higher unseen HE.

A non-random random number generator is certainly a possibility, however I just went back and reviewed the OP and discovered that this quasi-roulette game is part of another game which sounds like a role playing one where players go around some fantasy world doing activities and collecting stuff.  If you are familiar with role playing board games Settler of Catan serves as an example.  In that game-within-a-game environment a zero HE “game” would make sense.

Another possibility is that the game presented is basically the same as the no-zero game some online casinos offer, with the house getting its due by other means (e.g. some charge per hour of play, a transaction fee for withdrawals).

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My name is Skulker Luis de Midnight.
You killed my bankroll.
Prepare to die.

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