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density of moisture and humidity - air pressure & tides - gravity & moon phase
Posted: 11 July 2013 02:19 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 16 ]
Houston
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Here’s my ten cents on this issue.

There’s what works well theoretically and on paper, and then there’s what you can really use when you actually play. Yes barometric pressure and humidity are relevant, as are many other factors.  However, every time you add a new filter/variable you may be increasing the time you need to spend in the casino by 10x.  My suggestion is to “keep it real”.  Don’t add so many variables that you can’t concentrate on the fundamentals when you play.  Simplify where you can, even if it means ever so slightly reducing your theoretical edge.  What tends to happen, is that you have so much going through your head that you begin forgetting the fundamentals when you’re at the wheel, and you begin losing bets that you would have otherwise won, because you have over complicated the play.
You’re also going to stand out as being unusual or suspicious by collecting all of the additional data required to measure the new parameters!  You’re better off limiting your exposure, even if it means playing with a lower edge!

There are easier ways to work around some of these variables, (barometric pressure, humidity, moon phase, bad dealer hand, and bird farts), while maintaining your edge.  Basically they are just fundamentals that you should already be doing.


1.  Pretrack.  Take fresh ball lap times before each play so that you have a recent ball decay model that you can use.  Don’t rely on yesterday’s ball decay data. 
2. ‘Curve fit’ to more recent playing conditions when playing VB
3. When the pretrack doesn’t fit the model closely enough, or if you’re in doubt, then don’t play
4. Carefully watch where the ball is smacking the deflectors in your pretrack and on each spin that you play!
5. Carefully watch where the ball is smacking the deflectors in your pretrack and on each spin that you play!
6. Carefully watch where the ball is smacking the deflectors in your pretrack and on each spin that you play!
7. Carefully watch where the ball is smacking the deflectors in your pretrack and on each spin that you play!

Steps 4,5,6, and 7 are rather important.

Keep it simple, keep it real.

-Houston

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Posted: 12 January 2014 10:49 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 17 ]
sergiy
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Super Super super!!! Thank you very much!!!!!!!

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Posted: 26 May 2014 02:53 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 18 ]
ybot
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VB Meister - 19 April 2012 03:31 AM
AP2012 - 18 April 2012 05:07 PM

-

VB Meister any hints or comments about the subject ...

Hi AP,

Great topic. Some people dismiss factors like altitude, barometric pressure etc. Although I believe the moon also has an effect look at spring tide during full moon. High and low pressure systems rotate ccw in the Southern Hemisphere and cw in the Nothern hemisphere. Look at water draining from your bath. Same thing. Does that have an effect on cw and ccw spins?

I chart barometric pressures when I track and when I play. Just by doing that, you could be close to 10% better with predictions instead of using static info.

Think of barometric pressure this way. It is about the resistance in the air. Same as with altitude. If you play at sea level, the air density is high. This causes the ball to travel less distance than at altitude. Watch a cricket game. Playing at altitude the ball travels quite a bit further than at sea level.

The above is true for deflector hits but also for scatter. Especially playing a low fret or scalloped wheel where the ball almost always scatters forward and the forward momentum determines the distance traveled.

Interesting about barometric pressure in casinos and outside casinos. Seldom I would think there is much difference. I only take barometric pressure on the day in the casino. Not outside.  It makes perfect sense though that the pressure shouls be equal inside and outside. When I get up in the morning and the air is heavey with moisture, I lick my lips. smile There is no doubt the heavier the air the better conditions.

BP modifies orbits and yardage.

We must divide each day(or half a day) with their barometric pressures and see results.

We need high standard deviation number to conclude that it matters and how much when we have few data. As we add more data, we get more confidence in a conclusion.

Remember we separate pressure by 5 ml, so each spreadshhet must have at least 3000 trials to test and to qualify to determine a conection.

BP cannot be altered by the Casino, humidity and temperature are passible to be modified.

Nice I found a place where some member talk about this subject.

I have never studied humidity, temperature ,moon phase and tides because I consider them less linked to ball movement. I might be wrong. I hope, any can show me some data about.

Best regards
ybot

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Posted: 26 May 2014 03:29 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 19 ]
ybot
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VB Meister - 07 May 2012 04:27 AM

Hi AP,

Sorry for the long wait. I have been pretty busy lately. We played two wheels for 4 consequtive days with fair results.

relative humidity is measure % wise. Here is a catch though. Cold air cannot contain the same water vapour as warm air. So you could have 87% humidity in cold air and 87% humidity in warm air and although it’s the same, it’s not. It is relative to what the air can take at the time, whether it is warmer or colder if you catch what I’m trying to say.

It is true that most casinos have air conditioning and that humidity is also kept in check by that. How effective is this? Pretty much effective. Of the two wheels we played recently, the one was in a small casino with no airconditioning. Believe me. barometric pressure & humidity makes a difference. Those who say it makes no difference do not play often at casinos that I can tell you. Do your own data and you will see the effects.

Remember I told you there was a flaw put in one of my posts? Ok I will tell you. The more humidity is in the air, the further the ball travels, not the other way round. Most people thing that the more humidity in the air, the more resistance and therefore the ball will travel less. This is not true.  Water is ligher than the other constituents of the atmosphere, so high humidity would lead to “thinner” air like that at high altitudes. Larger size or increased density of balls in high humidity conditions found that humidity would actually increase the distance a ball travels, if only these factors were involved.

Here is a clip of interest:

AccuWeather.com has done extensive research into whether the weather is playing a role in the number of home runs at the new Yankee Stadium. We have determined that this weekend’s games with the Phillies will determine the outcome of this summer’s home run derby at Yankee Stadium because the forecast is for warm and a little more humid weather.

Our findings show that the weather conditions at Yankee Stadium oppose the number of home runs being hit at the stadium. Winds really have not been a factor, given that in most games, winds were not all that strong. In most games, winds were under 10 mph, and the direction of the wind was not consistent with the right field home run theory.
In respect to the temperature and humidity, and the laws of baseball flight, the number of home runs should be down. The laws of baseball flight say that a baseball will fly a longer distance in air that is warm and humid. Air that is warm and humid is considerably less dense than air that is cool and dry. The resistance on a baseball is greater in dense air than less-dense air. For example, a typical warm and humid New York evening would generally mean a better chance for home runs than, say, the cool evenings of April.

Our findings have shown that the majority of games where home runs were hit, the temperatures were between 54 and 69 degrees. The few games where the temperatures were in the 70s, the air was dry in those games. In all games, the air overall was dense compared to the warm, humid air that is yet to come.

We can only conclude from the weather data that the number of home runs should only go up this summer. AccuWeather.com is already predicting higher-than-normal humidity in the New York City area this summer, which means the home run derby should continue at Yankee Stadium.

The reason for the number of home runs at the new Yankee Stadium is still out for debate, but one thing is sure, the weather may not be the entire factor.

Some defects are seen stronger depending on these conditions.

A nice investigation.

VBMeister, I see you know your business.

BR
ybot

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Posted: 28 May 2014 09:46 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 20 ]
hitemhard
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Hi, I am beginning to think that a lot of posting contributors live on a different planet to me, although it may be that I live in England and most members on this site appear to be American.                                                                                                                                                                      However at the moment I am prepared to accept that I may be wrong. I thought that by joining this forum I would encounter many knowledgeable roulette players
but all I have encountered so far are pessimists and mathematical predictors.                                                                                                      Is there anyone out there who I can communicate with who has positive ideas that we can exchange.
                                                                                                                                              Regards hitemhard

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Posted: 28 May 2014 10:57 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 21 ]
ybot
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hitemhard, being a AP takes more than one can figure. As in any other realm, the more you know, the more you realise how much you ignore.
BR
ybot

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Posted: 28 May 2014 12:06 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 22 ]
hitemhard
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Hi, Yes I am realising that by some of the replies that I am getting, you are obviously an astute observer of the wheel and if your methods make you money ALL POWER TO YOU ELBOW, the more positive input on this forum the better, it seems to me that most users are very negative, still lets not worry about that,( it’s their loss).

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Posted: 31 May 2014 07:51 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 23 ]
Chip-hunter
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Hi everyone,

Recently i talk to a physicist and he doesn’t think that barometric pressure can stricly change the condition, well it could a little but as Houston said there are so many variable that it’s a bit useless. Vb needs to work enough to add those kind of variable into the play. I think that make a methodical pre track every session stays the better way to be efficient.

I just wonder why a lot of skilled vb player give so much importance to barometric pressure when the friction coefficient of the ball in a spin could affect it much more. Even simply with a dealer that has wet hands…

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Posted: 01 June 2014 02:26 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 24 ]
sergiy
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Cheep, just look to the wheel, than look to barrometric pressure gadget..  compare. I can say by the ball bechavior if it rains outside!!! You need another phisist to consultation. .. this one is dummy wink.

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Posted: 01 June 2014 07:34 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 25 ]
Chip-hunter
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Hi Sergiy,

You need another phisist to consultation. .. this one is dummy

Well he is qualified to answer that question. He has many experiences to do in his work and study effect on moving loads. For example billard chalk is used to avoid the friction coefficient to be too strong, and they don’t refer to barometric or something because it is insignifiant in this case.

He says that in a roulette spin, there are many parameters that combine to make the condition of the spin. It’s not about to know only about barometric pressure it is probably not the parameter that affect the more a spin. By the way, to know if barometric pressure is signifiant or not on the wheel you play, you should know what is the density of the ball ‘s component you’re playing (there are severals density for teflon, what’s our?). According to the “weight” of the ball it could be insignifiant. Do we at least have information about the density/weight of a ball. Otherwise it is a speculation or an opinion.

Cheep, just look to the wheel, than look to barrometric pressure gadget..  compare.

I got one but i m not sure it is enough to make a reliable analyse.

I can say by the ball bechavior if it rains outside!!!

So because of what? air pressure? hummidity? what factor affect it more?

I respect your opinion but i think the better way is here :

Here’s my ten cents on this issue.

There’s what works well theoretically and on paper, and then there’s what you can really use when you actually play. Yes barometric pressure and humidity are relevant, as are many other factors.  However, every time you add a new filter/variable you may be increasing the time you need to spend in the casino by 10x.  My suggestion is to “keep it real”.  Don’t add so many variables that you can’t concentrate on the fundamentals when you play.  Simplify where you can, even if it means ever so slightly reducing your theoretical edge.  What tends to happen, is that you have so much going through your head that you begin forgetting the fundamentals when you’re at the wheel, and you begin losing bets that you would have otherwise won, because you have over complicated the play.
You’re also going to stand out as being unusual or suspicious by collecting all of the additional data required to measure the new parameters!  You’re better off limiting your exposure, even if it means playing with a lower edge!

There are easier ways to work around some of these variables, (barometric pressure, humidity, moon phase, bad dealer hand, and bird farts), while maintaining your edge.  Basically they are just fundamentals that you should already be doing.


1.  Pretrack.  Take fresh ball lap times before each play so that you have a recent ball decay model that you can use.  Don’t rely on yesterday’s ball decay data. 
2. ‘Curve fit’ to more recent playing conditions when playing VB
3. When the pretrack doesn’t fit the model closely enough, or if you’re in doubt, then don’t play
4. Carefully watch where the ball is smacking the deflectors in your pretrack and on each spin that you play!
5. Carefully watch where the ball is smacking the deflectors in your pretrack and on each spin that you play!
6. Carefully watch where the ball is smacking the deflectors in your pretrack and on each spin that you play!
7. Carefully watch where the ball is smacking the deflectors in your pretrack and on each spin that you play!

Steps 4,5,6, and 7 are rather important.

Keep it simple, keep it real.

-Houston

We know that condition will change every sessions, we can look, we can hear to decide if you play or not , i don’t think it worth to try to handle condition when there are so many parameters. For example, you could persist with a bad dealer hand because barometric pressure is very high while you would have skiped this dealer because you can see that at this moment something is weird.

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Posted: 01 June 2014 08:01 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 26 ]
Chingy711
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How to win at roulette - think like a physicist: Scientists write software that can help you stack the odds in your favour

Like all casino games, the odds of winning at roulette are stacked against punters.

But now researchers claim they have unlocked the physics behind the game to give players a better chance of beating the house.

A new study shows how a computer programme can be used to give gamblers a return of 18 per cent, rather than the 2.7 per cent loss that would be expected from merely playing the odds.
Stacking the odds in your favour: Scientists have developed a computer programme that can calculate the physics of a spinning roulette wheel to help gamblers make an educated guess on the outcome
In roulette, a ball is rolled around the rim of a wheel spinning in the reverse direction. Eventually it rolls onto the spinning wheel and is hit by one of a number of deflectors, sending it bouncing chaotically until it lands in a numbered slot.
According to the new research, knowing where the ball begins to bounce is key to narrowing down which of the 36 slots it will eventually come to rest in.

Michael Small, professor of maths of the University of Western Australia, and Dr Chi Kong Tse, of the Hong Kong Polytechnic University, have developed a simple model for the motion of a roulette ball and wheel.
In a paper published in a recent issue of the journal Chaos, they show that if you know the initial position, velocity and acceleration of the ball you can narrow down where it will end up.
Players could use a tiny computer that, with the click of a button, records every time the ball passes a certain point on the wheel.
This information could then be used to predict when the ball would start to bounce and which group of roulette squares it will finally land in, increasing the chances of a correct guess.
‘As the wheel is moving at a constant angular velocity [and] the ball is decelerating, the time interval between these passes at a particular point are going to get longer,’ Professor Small told the Australian Broadcasting Corporation.
‘If you measure that three times you can estimate velocity and deceleration.’
Casinos make a profit from ensuring that in each game they offer the odds are stacked against gamblers. But Professor Small says his system allows punters to come out on top overall.

‘We demonstrate an expected return of at least 18 per cent, well above the -2.7 per cent of a random bet,’ he said.
This means that for every £1 bet, on average gamblers using the Professor Small’s software can expect a return of £1.18, rather than the 97p return that could be expected on the house’s odds.
Professor Small was able to improve the returns even more using a digital camera and image processor to track the ball. But it is likely that using such devices would annoy casinos.


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2220167/How-win-roulette—think-like-physicist-Scientists-write-software-help-stack-odds-favour.html#ixzz33OLB77Fw

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Posted: 01 June 2014 08:20 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 27 ]
Chip-hunter
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Hi Chingy,

This is known since ages, there was a book called le Défi in the 80’s, that was using a hp 41 calculator with chrono module to predict on which side the ball will end (tier or O neighbours). The main problem is that if once you are caught then you cannot play anymore, it doesn’t worth.

Still it shows that you can win at roulette via physics, this is not arithmetics.

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Posted: 01 June 2014 09:50 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 28 ]
Chingy711
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Chip-hunter - 01 June 2014 08:20 AM

Hi Chingy,

This is known since ages, there was a book called le Défi in the 80’s, that was using a hp 41 calculator with chrono module to predict on which side the ball will end (tier or O neighbours). The main problem is that if once you are caught then you cannot play anymore, it doesn’t worth.

Still it shows that you can win at roulette via physics, this is not arithmetics.

Hi Chip-Hunter,

  Yes I have hear of the book you mention and computer that was used
    to predict which side the ball would fall. When I first came here to this
  forum I did some research on the subject because I find some forum posts
  very interesting. I had many doubts concerning the ‘scatter effect” and the
  possibility of a reasonable prediction. This doubt was based on my knowledge
  from “dice setting” and the fact that once the dice hit the back wall the
  outcome becomes truly random. Thus I figured that the same would happen
  once the ball dropped that the scatter effect would also make the outcome
  also truly random. I was wrong scatter can be measured to some degree, to
  what degree I really don’t know. But even with limited success and the right
  bankroll used with sound money management I believe a positive expectation
  is possible.

  I would like share a link with you in response to your statement,

 

“Still it shows that you can win at roulette via physics, this is not arithmetics.”

  You might find it interesting!  The Relation between Mathematics and Physics
                                  By Paul Adrien Maurice Dirac

      http://www.damtp.cam.ac.uk/events/strings02/dirac/speach.html

                          Have a good day! Louie

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Posted: 01 June 2014 10:31 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 29 ]
Chip-hunter
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I was wrong scatter can be measured to some degree, to
  what degree I really don’t know.

Actually i think that the deflectors help us a lot, without deflectors ball speed would have been too important when meet the rotor and would produce too much chao i guess. Due to the condition, if the ball hit the top of the diamond, the ball speed won’t be absorbed enough, the angle of the drop will be different and the scatter will become more erratic. Then rotor speed and shape of the fret will affect it also. Some wheels are just unbeatable with an unpredictable scatter while with another rotor speed the scatter becomes predictable. I think pre track is the key to perform.

Of course there’s a link between physics and mathematics like in this case to apply the formula they need to take some physics data like before when with chi square test you could detect physics bias, thanks for the link, i’ll take a look to this document.

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Posted: 01 June 2014 11:09 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 30 ]
sergiy
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Chip-hunter - 01 June 2014 07:34 AM

Hi Sergiy,

You need another phisist to consultation. .. this one is dummy

Well he is qualified to answer that question. He has many experiences to do in his work and study effect on moving loads. For example billard chalk is used to avoid the friction coefficient to be too strong, and they don’t refer to barometric or something because it is insignifiant in this case.

He says that in a roulette spin, there are many parameters that combine to make the condition of the spin. It’s not about to know only about barometric pressure it is probably not the parameter that affect the more a spin. By the way, to know if barometric pressure is signifiant or not on the wheel you play, you should know what is the density of the ball ‘s component you’re playing (there are severals density for teflon, what’s our?). According to the “weight” of the ball it could be insignifiant. Do we at least have information about the density/weight of a ball. Otherwise it is a speculation or an opinion.

Cheep, just look to the wheel, than look to barrometric pressure gadget..  compare.

I got one but i m not sure it is enough to make a reliable analyse.

I can say by the ball bechavior if it rains outside!!!

So because of what? air pressure? hummidity? what factor affect it more?

I respect your opinion but i think the better way is here :

Here’s my ten cents on this issue.

There’s what works well theoretically and on paper, and then there’s what you can really use when you actually play. Yes barometric pressure and humidity are relevant, as are many other factors.  However, every time you add a new filter/variable you may be increasing the time you need to spend in the casino by 10x.  My suggestion is to “keep it real”.  Don’t add so many variables that you can’t concentrate on the fundamentals when you play.  Simplify where you can, even if it means ever so slightly reducing your theoretical edge.  What tends to happen, is that you have so much going through your head that you begin forgetting the fundamentals when you’re at the wheel, and you begin losing bets that you would have otherwise won, because you have over complicated the play.
You’re also going to stand out as being unusual or suspicious by collecting all of the additional data required to measure the new parameters!  You’re better off limiting your exposure, even if it means playing with a lower edge!

There are easier ways to work around some of these variables, (barometric pressure, humidity, moon phase, bad dealer hand, and bird farts), while maintaining your edge.  Basically they are just fundamentals that you should already be doing.


1.  Pretrack.  Take fresh ball lap times before each play so that you have a recent ball decay model that you can use.  Don’t rely on yesterday’s ball decay data. 
2. ‘Curve fit’ to more recent playing conditions when playing VB
3. When the pretrack doesn’t fit the model closely enough, or if you’re in doubt, then don’t play
4. Carefully watch where the ball is smacking the deflectors in your pretrack and on each spin that you play!
5. Carefully watch where the ball is smacking the deflectors in your pretrack and on each spin that you play!
6. Carefully watch where the ball is smacking the deflectors in your pretrack and on each spin that you play!
7. Carefully watch where the ball is smacking the deflectors in your pretrack and on each spin that you play!

Steps 4,5,6, and 7 are rather important.

Keep it simple, keep it real.

-Houston

We know that condition will change every sessions, we can look, we can hear to decide if you play or not , i don’t think it worth to try to handle condition when there are so many parameters. For example, you could persist with a bad dealer hand because barometric pressure is very high while you would have skiped this dealer because you can see that at this moment something is weird.

Well, Chip, l see your point. About sientist. Put him to winn money at roulette and you will see how much he is worth. The trick with all these additional variables, as Houston mentioned, is to look how they affect ball bechavior. About raining outside… if you spend lots of time perfecting vb and will be able to track 2 aditional variables, you will find the trick yourself. But the truth is that it simply can be seen by the ball bechavior. I already mentioned it somewhere at this forum…

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