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density of moisture and humidity - air pressure & tides - gravity & moon phase
Posted: 01 June 2014 11:20 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 31 ]
Chingy711
Sr. Member
Total Posts:  847
Joined  2012-05-18
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Chip-hunter - 01 June 2014 10:31 AM

I was wrong scatter can be measured to some degree, to
  what degree I really don’t know.

Actually i think that the deflectors help us a lot, without deflectors ball speed would have been too important when meet the rotor and would produce too much chao i guess. Due to the condition, if the ball hit the top of the diamond, the ball speed won’t be absorbed enough, the angle of the drop will be different and the scatter will become more erratic. Then rotor speed and shape of the fret will affect it also. Some wheels are just unbeatable with an unpredictable scatter while with another rotor speed the scatter becomes predictable. I think pre track is the key to perform.

Of course there’s a link between physics and mathematics like in this case to apply the formula they need to take some physics data like before when with chi square test you could detect physics bias, thanks for the link, i’ll take a look to this document.

Chip-Hunter,

    Since I have been on the forum, even though I’m a “system” player, I
  have read almost every post on VB. I was just wondering something
  while going through results from WestSpiel Spiebank site,
        http://permanenzen.westspiel.de/Default.aspx

  I do a lot of testing of systems and strategies when I’m bored and often
  use RNG’s and live casinos results such as those at WestSpiel.
  I’m well aware of all the variables that go into visual balistics but I was
  wondering, because WestSpiel has such a large amount of years of
  archived live roulette spins, would it be possible to go through say
  10,000 spin results and come up with an average mean for all the
  spins to the number of pockets from spin to spin. I know it’s a rough
  average without the factors of ball spins and rotor spins, but let’s say
  the average comes out to be 10 pockets for all 10,000 spins do you
  thnk it might be enough of an edge to overcome the house edge if one had
  the right size bankroll to handle the deviations. I know every dealer has
  a different spin and it’s matters where the ball is release from and rotor
  speed, but “might” the overall mean average be enough to find a positive
  expectation. Just curious!!!

 Signature 

“If it’s not broken, don’t fix it!”

Profile
 
 
Posted: 01 June 2014 01:15 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 32 ]
sergiy
Sr. Member
Total Posts:  1603
Joined  2014-01-02
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Chingy711 - 01 June 2014 11:20 AM
Chip-hunter - 01 June 2014 10:31 AM

I was wrong scatter can be measured to some degree, to
  what degree I really don’t know.

Actually i think that the deflectors help us a lot, without deflectors ball speed would have been too important when meet the rotor and would produce too much chao i guess. Due to the condition, if the ball hit the top of the diamond, the ball speed won’t be absorbed enough, the angle of the drop will be different and the scatter will become more erratic. Then rotor speed and shape of the fret will affect it also. Some wheels are just unbeatable with an unpredictable scatter while with another rotor speed the scatter becomes predictable. I think pre track is the key to perform.

Of course there’s a link between physics and mathematics like in this case to apply the formula they need to take some physics data like before when with chi square test you could detect physics bias, thanks for the link, i’ll take a look to this document.

Chip-Hunter,

    Since I have been on the forum, even though I’m a “system” player, I
  have read almost every post on VB. I was just wondering something
  while going through results from WestSpiel Spike bank site,
        http://permanenzen.westspiel.de/Default.aspx

  I do a lot of testing of systems and strategies when I’m bored and often
  use RNG’s and live casinos results such as those at WestSpiel.
  I’m well aware of all the variables that go into visual balistics but I was
  wondering, because WestSpiel has such a large amount of years of
  archived live roulette spins, would it be possible to go through say
  10,000 spin results and come up with an average mean for all the
  spins to the number of pockets from spin to spin. I know it’s a rough
  average without the factors of ball spins and rotor spins, but let’s say
  the average comes out to be 10 pockets for all 10,000 spins do you
  thnk it might be enough of an edge to overcome the house edge if one had
  the right size bankroll to handle the deviations. I know every dealer has
  a different spin and it’s matters where the ball is release from and rotor
  speed, but “might” the overall mean average be enough to find a positive
  expectation. Just curious!!!

what you will need is not mean or average, you will need std of mean in appiarence of such a difference in pokets.  I mean frequency of apiarence. Sometimes its not enough to read, need to understand as well.

Profile
 
 
Posted: 01 June 2014 01:50 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 33 ]
tezza12
Sr. Member
Total Posts:  164
Joined  2014-03-24
RankRankRankRank




What a farce, im sorry but i had to say something, All these VB guys are saying is nope, 1 million recorded live spins from the same dealer in the same conditions is not enough to predict a positive expectation, you can’t just read, you need to understand, ive never heard such utter crap. VB could be ended in a heartbeat by casinos if they wanted too. and VB and to a point AP players all come across like they are a cult, you must believe or you are a loser scum, or just a lucky person if you win, give me a break, System players can and do win also.

Profile
 
 
Posted: 01 June 2014 02:42 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 34 ]
sergiy
Sr. Member
Total Posts:  1603
Joined  2014-01-02
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Tezza, you personaly do not need to understand a thing, you can just shoot words as rng shoots numbers.. rendomly. Crap is what you told till now, as l can see you are full of it.lt just flows in form of words on the publick forum… You mast not belive a thing, in fact all these vb or AP guys just fooling with you around! I see that maths and common logick just do not apply to you. In vb or any other ap way we do follow logick, math, phisics and wheel. You, with your systems do follow FALLACY based on stupidity and lack of understanding. As l sayed on other post l wellcome your lack of knowledge as it pays my bills. Make shure you have a lot of children and if you can’t,  followers for your ideas. Thank you for your existance our lowed ” average Joe” live long and multiply your numbers.

Profile
 
 
Posted: 01 June 2014 03:01 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 35 ]
Chingy711
Sr. Member
Total Posts:  847
Joined  2012-05-18
RankRankRankRank




sergiy - 01 June 2014 01:15 PM
Chingy711 - 01 June 2014 11:20 AM
Chip-hunter - 01 June 2014 10:31 AM

I was wrong scatter can be measured to some degree, to
  what degree I really don’t know.

Actually i think that the deflectors help us a lot, without deflectors ball speed would have been too important when meet the rotor and would produce too much chao i guess. Due to the condition, if the ball hit the top of the diamond, the ball speed won’t be absorbed enough, the angle of the drop will be different and the scatter will become more erratic. Then rotor speed and shape of the fret will affect it also. Some wheels are just unbeatable with an unpredictable scatter while with another rotor speed the scatter becomes predictable. I think pre track is the key to perform.

Of course there’s a link between physics and mathematics like in this case to apply the formula they need to take some physics data like before when with chi square test you could detect physics bias, thanks for the link, i’ll take a look to this document.

Chip-Hunter,

    Since I have been on the forum, even though I’m a “system” player, I
  have read almost every post on VB. I was just wondering something
  while going through results from WestSpiel Spike bank site,
        http://permanenzen.westspiel.de/Default.aspx

  I do a lot of testing of systems and strategies when I’m bored and often
  use RNG’s and live casinos results such as those at WestSpiel.
  I’m well aware of all the variables that go into visual balistics but I was
  wondering, because WestSpiel has such a large amount of years of
  archived live roulette spins, would it be possible to go through say
  10,000 spin results and come up with an average mean for all the
  spins to the number of pockets from spin to spin. I know it’s a rough
  average without the factors of ball spins and rotor spins, but let’s say
  the average comes out to be 10 pockets for all 10,000 spins do you
  thnk it might be enough of an edge to overcome the house edge if one had
  the right size bankroll to handle the deviations. I know every dealer has
  a different spin and it’s matters where the ball is release from and rotor
  speed, but “might” the overall mean average be enough to find a positive
  expectation. Just curious!!!

what you will need is not mean or average, you will need std of mean in appiarence of such a difference in pokets.  I mean frequency of apiarence. Sometimes its not enough to read, need to understand as well.

  We are only dealing with 37 or 38 pockets depending which wheel you play.
  This would be considered a small distribution sample and thus 2/3 of the data
  values will lie within 1 standard deviation of the mean value and about
  95/100 of the data values will lie within 2 standard deviations of the mean value.
  All i was asking, if 95% of the standard deviation of the mean value is
  approximately 2, would the right bankroll make it possible to show a profit
  over a extended trial on a European wheel with the house edge being 2.7%?
 
 

“Sometimes its not enough to read, need to understand as well.”

  I know most of you AP’ers think us “system and strategy” players knuckleheads,
  but sometimes it appears OTHERS need to understand as well! I should known better
  now that I think of it. Why is it that so many AP’ers apply “certainty” in your
  logic of a game of uncertainty? Sorry I ever asked, it’s clear I can never understand!

 Signature 

“If it’s not broken, don’t fix it!”

Profile
 
 
Posted: 01 June 2014 03:25 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 36 ]
tezza12
Sr. Member
Total Posts:  164
Joined  2014-03-24
RankRankRankRank




sergiy - 01 June 2014 02:42 PM

Tezza, you personaly do not need to understand a thing, you can just shoot words as rng shoots numbers.. rendomly. Crap is what you told till now, as l can see you are full of it.lt just flows in form of words on the publick forum… You mast not belive a thing, in fact all these vb or AP guys just fooling with you around! I see that maths and common logick just do not apply to you. In vb or any other ap way we do follow logick, math, phisics and wheel. You, with your systems do follow FALLACY based on stupidity and lack of understanding. As l sayed on other post l wellcome your lack of knowledge as it pays my bills. Make shure you have a lot of children and if you can’t,  followers for your ideas. Thank you for your existance our lowed ” average Joe” live long and multiply your numbers.

Right on cue a CULT inspired answer, quality, 1 thing us system players do is reveal our wins or loses yet ive never seen one of you VB or AP players reveal your wins or loses, because there arnt any, Instead you would rather try personal insults just because i don;t agree with you, quite simply put, you are pathetic, who is your dad jimmy saville haha

Profile
 
 
Posted: 01 June 2014 04:22 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 37 ]
sergiy
Sr. Member
Total Posts:  1603
Joined  2014-01-02
RankRankRankRank




Its not a cult, rether culture. I only sayed the truth that can be expressed mathematically. Tezza, go back to school. If somebody tels you that you are stupid, in your particular case its not an insult, but the fact constatation. Not only casinos are wellcoming people like you, its banks, insurance companies, mlm, buisinesses online, system sellers and all that outher scammers. If you don’t lern math easy way, you gonna lern it hard way. Have a luck in life, you gonna need it wink

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Posted: 01 June 2014 04:44 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 38 ]
Chip-hunter
Sr. Member
Total Posts:  169
Joined  2014-01-26
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@Chingy

I had this idea few month ago. I recorded a lot of spin in the casino because i had a positive chi square. The problem is that randomness can be amazing sometimes even with distances, i had around 63 chi square after 2500 spins (in one direction only), i was pretty sure i found something but it came back normal the next 1000 spins. As Ap2012 said, it might be better to run simulation to see what random is able to do after x spins, and after x spins etc etc.

Profile
 
 
Posted: 01 June 2014 05:32 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 39 ]
sergiy
Sr. Member
Total Posts:  1603
Joined  2014-01-02
RankRankRankRank




Chingy711 - 01 June 2014 03:01 PM
sergiy - 01 June 2014 01:15 PM
Chingy711 - 01 June 2014 11:20 AM
Chip-hunter - 01 June 2014 10:31 AM

I was wrong scatter can be measured to some degree, to
  what degree I really don’t know.

Actually i think that the deflectors help us a lot, without deflectors ball speed would have been too important when meet the rotor and would produce too much chao i guess. Due to the condition, if the ball hit the top of the diamond, the ball speed won’t be absorbed enough, the angle of the drop will be different and the scatter will become more erratic. Then rotor speed and shape of the fret will affect it also. Some wheels are just unbeatable with an unpredictable scatter while with another rotor speed the scatter becomes predictable. I think pre track is the key to perform.

Of course there’s a link between physics and mathematics like in this case to apply the formula they need to take some physics data like before when with chi square test you could detect physics bias, thanks for the link, i’ll take a look to this document.

Chip-Hunter,

    Since I have been on the forum, even though I’m a “system” player, I
  have read almost every post on VB. I was just wondering something
  while going through results from WestSpiel Spike bank site,
        http://permanenzen.westspiel.de/Default.aspx

  I do a lot of testing of systems and strategies when I’m bored and often
  use RNG’s and live casinos results such as those at WestSpiel.
  I’m well aware of all the variables that go into visual balistics but I was
  wondering, because WestSpiel has such a large amount of years of
  archived live roulette spins, would it be possible to go through say
  10,000 spin results and come up with an average mean for all the
  spins to the number of pockets from spin to spin. I know it’s a rough
  average without the factors of ball spins and rotor spins, but let’s say
  the average comes out to be 10 pockets for all 10,000 spins do you
  thnk it might be enough of an edge to overcome the house edge if one had
  the right size bankroll to handle the deviations. I know every dealer has
  a different spin and it’s matters where the ball is release from and rotor
  speed, but “might” the overall mean average be enough to find a positive
  expectation. Just curious!!!

what you will need is not mean or average, you will need std of mean in appiarence of such a difference in pokets.  I mean frequency of apiarence. Sometimes its not enough to read, need to understand as well.

  We are only dealing with 37 or 38 pockets depending which wheel you play.
  This would be considered a small distribution sample and thus 2/3 of the data
  values will lie within 1 standard deviation of the mean value and about
  95/100 of the data values will lie within 2 standard deviations of the mean value.
  All i was asking, if 95% of the standard deviation of the mean value is
  approximately 2, would the right bankroll make it possible to show a profit
  over a extended trial on a European wheel with the house edge being 2.7%?
 
 

“Sometimes its not enough to read, need to understand as well.”

  I know most of you AP’ers think us “system and strategy” players knuckleheads,
  but sometimes it appears OTHERS need to understand as well! I should known better
  now that I think of it. Why is it that so many AP’ers apply “certainty” in your
  logic of a game of uncertainty? Sorry I ever asked, it’s clear I can never understand!

Chingy, everybody can understand, it even enclude me, not only you. Depends only on ammount of time spent and dedication. I had to buy roulette wheel, to find out how it really works.  And even so, without help of other people like AP 2014, Houston and other people of other forums l would be “system player” till today.You have to go to all forums, see what other people say and tolk about, experement a lot and find out some things by yourself, then you will understand. After understanding you start to lern, polish your skills and then one day you will say” l know the damn thing”... lt gonna be the beginning of your AP way… you will push harder and harder for your limits of understanding, you will ” need” to understand more!!! Whan you expirience it by yourself,  you will become one of these guys who actually trying to help others in publick forums. Others call them AP or math boys…but its people like you and me, who already can beat the wheel, so they look other people to help them, to work together. Its a team play after words!

Profile
 
 
Posted: 22 February 2015 04:06 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 40 ]
ybot
Newbie
Total Posts:  12
Joined  2014-05-26
Rank




Houston - 11 July 2013 02:19 PM

Here’s my ten cents on this issue.

There’s what works well theoretically and on paper, and then there’s what you can really use when you actually play. Yes barometric pressure and humidity are relevant, as are many other factors.  However, every time you add a new filter/variable you may be increasing the time you need to spend in the casino by 10x.  My suggestion is to “keep it real”.  Don’t add so many variables that you can’t concentrate on the fundamentals when you play.  Simplify where you can, even if it means ever so slightly reducing your theoretical edge.  What tends to happen, is that you have so much going through your head that you begin forgetting the fundamentals when you’re at the wheel, and you begin losing bets that you would have otherwise won, because you have over complicated the play.
You’re also going to stand out as being unusual or suspicious by collecting all of the additional data required to measure the new parameters!  You’re better off limiting your exposure, even if it means playing with a lower edge!

There are easier ways to work around some of these variables, (barometric pressure, humidity, moon phase, bad dealer hand, and bird farts), while maintaining your edge.  Basically they are just fundamentals that you should already be doing.


1.  Pretrack.  Take fresh ball lap times before each play so that you have a recent ball decay model that you can use.  Don’t rely on yesterday’s ball decay data. 
2. ‘Curve fit’ to more recent playing conditions when playing VB
3. When the pretrack doesn’t fit the model closely enough, or if you’re in doubt, then don’t play
4. Carefully watch where the ball is smacking the deflectors in your pretrack and on each spin that you play!
5. Carefully watch where the ball is smacking the deflectors in your pretrack and on each spin that you play!
6. Carefully watch where the ball is smacking the deflectors in your pretrack and on each spin that you play!
7. Carefully watch where the ball is smacking the deflectors in your pretrack and on each spin that you play!

Steps 4,5,6, and 7 are rather important.

Keep it simple, keep it real.

-Houston

Very clear.
But, we must define what you meant by pretrack
100 new trials might help, we have to know what to look for to decide to play or not
Supose we have a known 6-number-section biased(past data), we take these new 100 trilas, we must decide when conditions(hidden or not) have worked the same as we tracjed before.
We might say that +2sd on these 100 triasl for the exact 6 numbers is a confirmation, or, thet this section hot more than 6/36. It is very subjective to decide then.
On 100 trials, fluctuations fool you very easy
And, in case we hav taken 10k or more in a wheel, what facts weigh more? past or present data? both
Smacks and orbits are very important to determine a condition change. Physical variables affects ball speed on the ball track to shift where it smacks. Most advantages are ruled by deflectors.
But, we have the same problem we faced with the pretrack, 100, 200 smacks only give us an idea with plenty of dispersion.
We would need a game mathematician to give accurate rates.
I have many thounsend of streams, divided day by day, I used to study them to find a signal to play or not. My techniques have never succeeded in predict a good or bad day based in early pretrack.
I wish , we could predict it this way.
It was my humble opinion based on my experience.

BR

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Posted: 02 June 2015 09:43 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 41 ]
ybot
Newbie
Total Posts:  12
Joined  2014-05-26
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About sea tides and Moon phases

We know that sea tides affect some physical eventos

Tides are ruled by the moon. 4 times a day.

We might explain events happenned early in the morning(many mornings), and others in the afternoon

Vb and bias players should put an eye on this realm

I guess, there is no serious search about this

You need large data to accomplish it

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Posted: 02 June 2015 01:41 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 42 ]
sergiy
Sr. Member
Total Posts:  1603
Joined  2014-01-02
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ybot - 02 June 2015 09:43 AM

About sea tides and Moon phases

We know that sea tides affect some physical eventos

Tides are ruled by the moon. 4 times a day.

We might explain events happenned early in the morning(many mornings), and others in the afternoon

Vb and bias players should put an eye on this realm

I guess, there is no serious search about this

You need large data to accomplish it

large data is always good, but isn’t it more easy to find some benchmark event ( diamond hitt ratio, or average scatter or orbits ratio on dd)? Some count revolutions, time spin duration. ..
Forcast for the tides and stuff can be found on lockal meteorological service.

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Posted: 02 June 2015 07:46 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 43 ]
ybot
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Joined  2014-05-26
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Suppose you have got every single day of this year data, it becomes harder to analize VB than bias because VB takes more variables than bias.
We have got a biased 10-number-section which hits 2% edge for example.
We separate good and bad days to find link on these good or bad days.
We use math tools(standard dev test), conditional probability and other to find a common event happened these day or half a days.
We could take a day as the date plus their 2 next days, in case we analize may 10th with take may 9th may 10th and may 11th
There might be a leading moon phase or phases that break some sd
We can find the explanation of several bold drawdowns and hot times.
warm regards

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Posted: 02 June 2015 11:58 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 44 ]
VB Meister
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Total Posts:  1072
Joined  2010-04-08
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ybot - 02 June 2015 07:46 PM

Suppose you have got every single day of this year data, it becomes harder to analize VB than bias because VB takes more variables than bias.
We have got a biased 10-number-section which hits 2% edge for example.
We separate good and bad days to find link on these good or bad days.
We use math tools(standard dev test), conditional probability and other to find a common event happened these day or half a days.
We could take a day as the date plus their 2 next days, in case we analize may 10th with take may 9th may 10th and may 11th
There might be a leading moon phase or phases that break some sd
We can find the explanation of several bold drawdowns and hot times.
warm regards

Your problem is this. You do not know when balls were changed. What type was used what size? When you have streams….. do you also have wheel speed for each spin? If not. Well you could be looking at a wheel producing results because it is very fast and then when you go play the next day a croupier spins the wheel very slow…. you do not get that bias effect as expected.

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Posted: 03 June 2015 12:04 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 45 ]
ybot
Newbie
Total Posts:  12
Joined  2014-05-26
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VB Meister - 02 June 2015 11:58 PM
ybot - 02 June 2015 07:46 PM

Suppose you have got every single day of this year data, it becomes harder to analize VB than bias because VB takes more variables than bias.
We have got a biased 10-number-section which hits 2% edge for example.
We separate good and bad days to find link on these good or bad days.
We use math tools(standard dev test), conditional probability and other to find a common event happened these day or half a days.
We could take a day as the date plus their 2 next days, in case we analize may 10th with take may 9th may 10th and may 11th
There might be a leading moon phase or phases that break some sd
We can find the explanation of several bold drawdowns and hot times.
warm regards

Your problem is this. You do not know when balls were changed. What type was used what size? When you have streams….. do you also have wheel speed for each spin? If not. Well you could be looking at a wheel producing results because it is very fast and then when you go play the next day a croupier spins the wheel very slow…. you do not get that bias effect as expected.

I know each ball used, in case they switch it I store these data in their proper sheet.

Rotor speed changes are considered too

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