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Progression on 1 dozen
Posted: 14 September 2012 04:00 PM   [ Ignore ]
Cassy
Newbie
Total Posts:  5
Joined  2012-09-14
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Hey there.

I am fairly new at gambling, and have been rather lucky at the following:
Once I arrive at a casino, I walk around the tables and check for a “sleeper dozen” which has not appeared for 7 spins. I then bet 1 chip on the sleeper, if I lose, I double to 2 chips, then 3, etc. With the payout on dozens being 2:1, I carefully check what amount I am down by, and if I lose too many times in a row, I bet double streets and the dozen to make up at least 1 chip before my bankrole runs out. So far, I have been lucky, and have managed to walk out with at least a little tip. Downside is I “jump” alot from table to table, and don’t play very often. Being cautious in nature, I find this better than doing even bets - I am hopeless at those bets! It’s also helping to give me experience, and I shake alot less now than I did when I first started… I only play land casino’s - online roulette (even virtual accounts) in my novice opinion is jinxed. When I do the same system online, at any casino, I get bust.

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Posted: 15 September 2012 04:04 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1 ]
Orion
Newbie
Total Posts:  2
Joined  2012-09-11
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Yes you are lucky. Bad news is, eventually our luck runs out. I have seen dozens/columns sleep for 15+ spins (Not sure the exact amount but I have seen an entire board absent of them and they tend to hold at least 16 numbers a board)! It’s kinda funny because if you think it will never sleep more than 16 times, but it will surprise you when you start betting it! At least, that was my story when I started with roulette a few years back. VB is the only real way you can get an edge at roulette and it’s not cut out for everyone. Just remember, just because it slept for 7 spins doesn’t mean it won’t sleep for another 7 or more. It can happen and it does happen more than most people think.

As for online casinos, I trust them with my money about as much as Nigerian Princes…

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Posted: 15 September 2012 04:44 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 2 ]
CasinoObserver
Sr. Member
Total Posts:  452
Joined  2011-12-14
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Hi guy , Welcome to this forum>

PLease learn a little bit about statistics so you understand your chances and your risks better.
Every spin the chance of your dozen NOT falling is ( on a european roulette with one zero) is 25/37   The next spin again the chance of loosing is 25/37 So the chance that your dozen does not fall 2 times is 25/37 * 25/37
So the chance that your dozen does not show 15 times is (25/37)^15=0,279%  Seems good but please learn to interprete percentages too.
1% chance of loosing means that every 100 spins you suffer a loss!
so 0,1% chance means you loose big every 1000 spins
so 0,279% chance means you loose approx every 358 spins. So even when you play short time your risk that you start at spin 350 until 365 (;-)  is quite high and sooner or later you loose your shirt.

Reality dictates that if you want to stand any chance you should have sufficient bankroll to survive not just 15 times but at least 20 times and preferably even 24 times ( when playing on dozens or columns)

If you can survive a row of 23 times that your dozen does not show your chances are 0,008198% to loose ( provided you can still do bet 24!)
A trick to do this is to wait 25-the num,ber of bets your BR or table limit allows.  So if you can progress 15 times than you have to wait for your dozen to not show at least 10 times.  Back side of this is of course that this means that you have to wait very long time before making a small profit. And this is where bots come in to do this tedious waiting work for us.

In most casinos the max table limit is preventing us from going to progression 24. 
And now the nice (!)  thing about statistics:  they are only followed in very long sessions. So when you play a short session you may be UNLucky and get 2 times of your dozen not showing 27 x in a row but you can also be lucky and never ever see this happening and always win. 
There are NO 100% guarantees in roulette.  But reducing your chances of loosing the the max possible will at least give you a better chance and possibly never give you a loss. 

Last example.  IN real casino’s the max ever seen was a row of 26 x RED.  So if you can design a systems to survive a row of 26 red then you may never have a loss. BUT the fact that this row of 26 once happened DOES NOT MEAN that this world will never see a row of 27 RED’s .  Understand??

Cheers
CO

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Posted: 15 September 2012 11:51 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 3 ]
Cassy
Newbie
Total Posts:  5
Joined  2012-09-14
Rank




Thanks so much for the responses.
All comments noted - thanks.
I am well aware of the sleeper dozen and taking a chance on betting it after x amount of spins.. I have a cheap plastic roulette wheel at home which I use for random numbers, and have seen on this little thing that it is possible for a dozen not to show for 20 + spins. Which is why I joined this site to learn more. I do have a careful money management system that I use, which has saved me in the past, but surprisingly, this strategy has saved me more than once up to now, also has to do with ‘chance’ and the chances of a sleeper dozen sleeping for 10 spins is higher than 20 spins, but yes, valid point, when I am playing and the dozen decides to sleep for 20 spins then I am screwed, but that is where a different strategy comes into play, and I play even bets, or lose my set amount then cash in and try the next night. I have only been playing for real for about a month now, 2 to 3 times a week. Before this I spent 8 months playing on-line Roulette (play account) or stand for hours at a casino writing down stats to work on later. I have done a little homework on this, but I still have alot to learn to fully understand and grasp this game. Any advise or tips you can give will help tremendously, and I thank you in advance.
Take Care

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