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really curious what you think of my little procedure
Posted: 08 November 2012 05:13 PM   [ Ignore ]
welrod
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Total Posts:  1
Joined  2012-11-08
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Hi everybody!  (I’m brand new.)

So real quickly let me post my dis-qualifications:  I’m no expert gambler.  I’ve played a couple of different games but never in an actual casino.  I’m mildly educated on some concepts of poker and baccarat and card counting but I’m far from an expert in any of this.  To even call myself a hobbyist is to overstate the case.. I’m not even a “math” person.  The only qualification I can give is a lot of experience rolling many funny-sided dice a lot of times when I was a kid playing conceptual roleplaying games.  It’s not a qualification, but I did develop a deep interest in chance, outcome, and the power of prediction of outcome (ethereal as that “power” is).  I’m very INTERESTED however, recenty, in Roulette.

So I’ll stop rambling, and get to my point.  In the last few years I’ve stumbled upon a procedure in playing Roulette and I’ve never talked to anybody beyond laymen friends about it, and I have started to become really curious if it’s a) completely inanely simplistic and dumb; b) already established and/or well-known; or c) flawed and not worth any of our collective time.  .. To me, it seems a logical approach to yanking a win from a table designed to slide players toward losing over several spins (edge).  But I’d value your group opinion a hundred times over my own speculation.

The “procedure” (I dare not call it a technique!) goes something like this:  1. Bring a lot of Units, well more Units than the table’s min/max bets.. In theory if I had a $1 min bet and $100 max, I would want at least $1000.. conceivably $2000, just because this would create a cushion which would allow you to ride through bad moments (thereby rapidly increasing the chances that those bad moments will come to a close; I’ll try to make myself clearer below.)  2.  Stand back and watch the table, keeping an eye on the sways of chance on outside bets (I’m pretty sure this is really common).  3.  When you’ve seen a trend (5 reds back to back, all odd), you place a modest couple of bets against the trends on the outside that you can pretty well see.  (5:1 even and black, right?)  4.  When a trend satisfies, for sake of keeping the mind clear of difficult fractions, reset the mental counter to neutral on that trend. (i.e. after 5 reds, 1 black resets to an assumptive 1:1, instead of taking into account that black COULD be more likely a second time, since those collapsing chances seem to serve against you and not for you.)  5.  Follow as many threads of counting as you humanly can, starting with black/red, then even odd, then low/high, then 1/2/3 3rd, then 1,2,3 rows, then individual numbers if you can keep these concepts ongoing at once in the mind.  (I remember the Mental Champion who recently memorized 80,000 digits of pi and recited them without flaw, when I think of this part.  Memory palaces abound.)  6.  When you lose a bet, bet down not double, but double + .5 on the same trend which is now more likely = $1 black/loss, $3 black/loss, $9 black/win = payout $18 on expended $13, and the odds remain relatively “fair” through the whole stretch.  7.  DON’T PLAY TOO LONG!  Make only a little money at any given session.  Play for five minutes and if you’re up, walk away, get a sandwich, then come back and post up near enough the table to watch a few rounds, and let the “chance counters” resettle to their native numbers. 

All this I came up with not with any original intent to gamble, but just having fun trying to beat a puzzle.  ANd I was flabbergasted to see it work, at least in all the electronic (and cost-free) trials I’ve been able to find.

Of course it’s also to me very intuitive, so it wouldn’t surprise me if I’m just stating the World’s Most Common Approach to Roulette.  Trouble is if I am, I just don’t know so.

So, experienced wheel jockies, what do you think?

PS.. I would love to know if there are books or any trustworthy resources I should pore through to know more about the game.  I’m beyond leery to go internet hunting since so many people seem to have SO much “GOOD” info on winning at Roulette, and all of it at a (shyster’s) premium.. =)

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Posted: 08 November 2012 06:21 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1 ]
VB Meister
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Total Posts:  1072
Joined  2010-04-08
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welrod - 08 November 2012 05:13 PM

Hi everybody!  (I’m brand new.)

So real quickly let me post my dis-qualifications:  I’m no expert gambler.  I’ve played a couple of different games but never in an actual casino.  I’m mildly educated on some concepts of poker and baccarat and card counting but I’m far from an expert in any of this.  To even call myself a hobbyist is to overstate the case.. I’m not even a “math” person.  The only qualification I can give is a lot of experience rolling many funny-sided dice a lot of times when I was a kid playing conceptual roleplaying games.  It’s not a qualification, but I did develop a deep interest in chance, outcome, and the power of prediction of outcome (ethereal as that “power” is).  I’m very INTERESTED however, recenty, in Roulette.

So I’ll stop rambling, and get to my point.  In the last few years I’ve stumbled upon a procedure in playing Roulette and I’ve never talked to anybody beyond laymen friends about it, and I have started to become really curious if it’s a) completely inanely simplistic and dumb; b) already established and/or well-known; or c) flawed and not worth any of our collective time.  .. To me, it seems a logical approach to yanking a win from a table designed to slide players toward losing over several spins (edge).  But I’d value your group opinion a hundred times over my own speculation.

The “procedure” (I dare not call it a technique!) goes something like this:  1. Bring a lot of Units, well more Units than the table’s min/max bets.. In theory if I had a $1 min bet and $100 max, I would want at least $1000.. conceivably $2000, just because this would create a cushion which would allow you to ride through bad moments (thereby rapidly increasing the chances that those bad moments will come to a close; I’ll try to make myself clearer below.)  2.  Stand back and watch the table, keeping an eye on the sways of chance on outside bets (I’m pretty sure this is really common).  3.  When you’ve seen a trend (5 reds back to back, all odd), you place a modest couple of bets against the trends on the outside that you can pretty well see.  (5:1 even and black, right?)  4.  When a trend satisfies, for sake of keeping the mind clear of difficult fractions, reset the mental counter to neutral on that trend. (i.e. after 5 reds, 1 black resets to an assumptive 1:1, instead of taking into account that black COULD be more likely a second time, since those collapsing chances seem to serve against you and not for you.)  5.  Follow as many threads of counting as you humanly can, starting with black/red, then even odd, then low/high, then 1/2/3 3rd, then 1,2,3 rows, then individual numbers if you can keep these concepts ongoing at once in the mind.  (I remember the Mental Champion who recently memorized 80,000 digits of pi and recited them without flaw, when I think of this part.  Memory palaces abound.)  6.  When you lose a bet, bet down not double, but double + .5 on the same trend which is now more likely = $1 black/loss, $3 black/loss, $9 black/win = payout $18 on expended $13, and the odds remain relatively “fair” through the whole stretch.  7.  DON’T PLAY TOO LONG!  Make only a little money at any given session.  Play for five minutes and if you’re up, walk away, get a sandwich, then come back and post up near enough the table to watch a few rounds, and let the “chance counters” resettle to their native numbers. 

All this I came up with not with any original intent to gamble, but just having fun trying to beat a puzzle.  ANd I was flabbergasted to see it work, at least in all the electronic (and cost-free) trials I’ve been able to find.

Of course it’s also to me very intuitive, so it wouldn’t surprise me if I’m just stating the World’s Most Common Approach to Roulette.  Trouble is if I am, I just don’t know so.

So, experienced wheel jockies, what do you think?

PS.. I would love to know if there are books or any trustworthy resources I should pore through to know more about the game.  I’m beyond leery to go internet hunting since so many people seem to have SO much “GOOD” info on winning at Roulette, and all of it at a (shyster’s) premium.. =)

It is an classic example of gf or gambler’s fallacy. The classic mistake of thinking something is due because it has not come in x amount of spins. Every spin is a new event. Past results have no bearing on the game whatsoever. It is human to try and see patterns and organize chaos. Or rather do so in our own minds. Fact remains that there are 37 numbers and any can fall in any spin. As far as walking away if you have a small profit Also nonsence. Wjat if you were never up in a session? What if you played and won a small profit but leave only to miss the next 3 hits? What if you come back from your break and walk into a downside or negative trend in your method? You see this is the same arguement that people do not understand when it comes to short term and long term. Alot of short term = long term. Same as alot of small sessions = one very long session. whether you play a long session or alot of short, eventually the house edge and the randomness of the game will beat you. Furthermore you mention progression. One word..FATAL!

No blind betting system can beat roulette. Only advantage techniques. It is the same with Black Jack. Like you mention, card counting. That is an advantage technique. In roulette it is visual ballistics, bias and some hybrid ds.

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