• Roulette Forum
  • Craps Forum
  • TwentyOne Forum
Welcome to RouletteForum.com
Notice: 5/8/2017 -- RouletteForum.com is closed to new posting and will remain in read-only mode for 30 days. If you wish to preserve any of your posts, do so soon.
   
 
The “Long Run” what does it mean to a player?
Posted: 25 February 2013 11:28 PM   [ Ignore ]
Chingy711
Sr. Member
Total Posts:  847
Joined  2012-05-18
RankRankRankRank




Hi,
  This is my first post in the roulette forum section. I’m a craps player and have been playing for over 40 years.
Over the years I heard repeatedly that the “house edge” will always get you in the long run. Well what is the
“long run” for a player? Is it a 100 rolls, 1,000, 10,000 or a million? Let’s say you play 10 hours straight, that’s
approximately 300 to 500 spins at the roulette table, would that be a large enough to qualify as the “long run”?

  “A probability provides a quantatative description of the likely occurrence of a particular event”

  The key words are “the likely occurence”, so why is it that so many mathematicians say that no betting strategy
  can over come the house edge in the long run when in reality no player ever plays long enough. Why is it so
  difficult to believe there are “Winning Strategies”. There are players that have sound betting strategies that play
  short sessions, limit their loses and are constant winners year after year. There are winning strategies and winning
  players!

 Signature 

“If it’s not broken, don’t fix it!”

Profile
 
 
Posted: 26 February 2013 02:38 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 1 ]
VB Meister
Sr. Member
Total Posts:  1072
Joined  2010-04-08
RankRankRankRank




Chingy711 - 25 February 2013 11:28 PM

Hi,
  This is my first post in the roulette forum section. I’m a craps player and have been playing for over 40 years.
Over the years I heard repeatedly that the “house edge” will always get you in the long run. Well what is the
“long run” for a player? Is it a 100 rolls, 1,000, 10,000 or a million? Let’s say you play 10 hours straight, that’s
approximately 300 to 500 spins at the roulette table, would that be a large enough to qualify as the “long run”?

  “A probability provides a quantatative description of the likely occurrence of a particular event”

  The key words are “the likely occurence”, so why is it that so many mathematicians say that no betting strategy
  can over come the house edge in the long run when in reality no player ever plays long enough. Why is it so
  difficult to believe there are “Winning Strategies”. There are players that have sound betting strategies that play
  short sessions, limit their loses and are constant winners year after year. There are winning strategies and winning
  players!

Do a coin flip. Do 100 flips and see if you can get better than 50% Now do another 100 spins and see where you stand. Now. after the 100 spins deduct the house edge forbeach sample of 100 spins. look where you stand now.

The thing is what people do not get is you loose the HE every bet you make, win or loose.

Profile
 
 
Posted: 27 February 2013 11:32 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 2 ]
goforit
Newbie
Total Posts:  22
Joined  2012-12-15
Rank




VB Meister, look e-mail account and read post I sent you 2 weeks back.
thx. J.

Profile
 
 
Posted: 27 February 2013 02:47 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 3 ]
VB Meister
Sr. Member
Total Posts:  1072
Joined  2010-04-08
RankRankRankRank




goforit - 27 February 2013 11:32 AM

VB Meister, look e-mail account and read post I sent you 2 weeks back.
thx. J.

will do.

Profile
 
 
Posted: 27 February 2013 04:56 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 4 ]
harryj
Sr. Member
Total Posts:  516
Joined  2012-12-07
RankRankRankRank




Hi VB,
        That coin flip business only works if the punter bets 1 chip every spin. the trick is to flip the coin a few thousand times. Collate the results and prepare a “Table Of Frequencies”. Compare this to a mathematical” Table of Frequencies”. The differences between the actual and the mathematical results will pinpoint when to start betting and when to stop. EG If the actual results show that streaks of 4-5-6 appear more frequently than mathematics suggests, the punter can make a bet every time heads or tails wins 3 times in a row. This can be a single bet or a short progression. Lost bets or progressions, and there will be quite a few, can either be absorbed or recovered by pressing the next target.
  If the homework has been done correctly the long run results will negate the HE.
   
        Regards Harry

Profile
 
 
Posted: 01 March 2013 05:17 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 5 ]
Pertinax
Sr. Member
Total Posts:  351
Joined  2013-02-07
RankRankRankRank




harryj - 27 February 2013 04:56 PM

Hi VB,
        That coin flip business only works if the punter bets 1 chip every spin. the trick is to flip the coin a few thousand times. Collate the results and prepare a “Table Of Frequencies”. Compare this to a mathematical” Table of Frequencies”. The differences between the actual and the mathematical results will pinpoint when to start betting and when to stop. EG If the actual results show that streaks of 4-5-6 appear more frequently than mathematics suggests, the punter can make a bet every time heads or tails wins 3 times in a row. This can be a single bet or a short progression. Lost bets or progressions, and there will be quite a few, can either be absorbed or recovered by pressing the next target.
  If the homework has been done correctly the long run results will negate the HE.
   
        Regards Harry

Harryj,
      what you suggest will not work unless there is a pesistant bias.  Due to you waiting before betting, this simply means you will be playing for longer, as such you will experiance more scenarios we would consider outside of random if not playing for so long.  If you stay long enough you will see a 4 standard deviation sequence for example, of which need not occur so often to activate the house edge, whilst you are not likely to view such a thing if only playing for a short time +- some luck, the HE will remain the same. 

You will never break the house edge by a betting system alone as it can in theory occur for an infinate time, this is well past the table limits.  Casinos do not exist because it would take a punter a few hours to analyse results, which would incite most simply cant be bothered.

Harryj, are you a bias player?

Profile
 
 
Posted: 01 March 2013 08:08 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 6 ]
harryj
Sr. Member
Total Posts:  516
Joined  2012-12-07
RankRankRankRank




Hi pertinax,
      No I am not a bias player. If anything I am an SD(Standard Deviation) player. As I have pointed out in another thread SD’s are far more important than the mythical LONG RUN.
  A) Because they have a numerical value which is part of the PROBABILITY THEORY.
  B) Because they were written into probability by a gambler who observed them over the gaming table. NOT, I REPEAT NOT as part of a contrived experiment. There are other reasons but those are the most important.
   
    Try this experiment:-  Take a thousand random spins. Pick one of the even chances and compare the variance.
                          Now split that same 1000 spins into groups of 100 Compare the variances.
                          Now split the 100’s into 10’s and compare the variances again.
                          You now have 100 groups of 10. Compare the variances of the 1st few with the last few.
    Your IN THE LONG RUN THEORY will disappear like summer snow!

    The long run is composed of hundreds of short runs strung together. The SD’s ZigZag across equilibrium all the time. Look up DRUNKARD’S WALK. It’s part of probability.

        Regards       Harry

Profile
 
 
Posted: 01 March 2013 02:45 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 7 ]
Pertinax
Sr. Member
Total Posts:  351
Joined  2013-02-07
RankRankRankRank




harryj - 01 March 2013 08:08 AM

Hi pertinax,
      No I am not a bias player. If anything I am an SD(Standard Deviation) player. As I have pointed out in another thread SD’s are far more important than the mythical LONG RUN.
  A) Because they have a numerical value which is part of the PROBABILITY THEORY.
  B) Because they were written into probability by a gambler who observed them over the gaming table. NOT, I REPEAT NOT as part of a contrived experiment. There are other reasons but those are the most important.
   
    Try this experiment:-  Take a thousand random spins. Pick one of the even chances and compare the variance.
                          Now split that same 1000 spins into groups of 100 Compare the variances.
                          Now split the 100’s into 10’s and compare the variances again.
                          You now have 100 groups of 10. Compare the variances of the 1st few with the last few.
    Your IN THE LONG RUN THEORY will disappear like summer snow!

    The long run is composed of hundreds of short runs strung together. The SD’s ZigZag across equilibrium all the time. Look up DRUNKARD’S WALK. It’s part of probability.

        Regards       Harry

Well, we seem in 2 different camps.  But that is good, variety is often required for success as is to keep an open mind!  Even though I firmly believe the math behind the house edge, I still ran simulations of various standard deviation observations quite recently, over thousands of millions of spins, the house edge remained.

The reason for such a test was to explore bias characteristics and identification thereof, I still required a bias to find the desired results though.  Only then could I test and repeat the sequence, i.e confirm an edge.

Anyway all the best in your endeavors.

Profile
 
 
Posted: 02 March 2013 04:33 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 8 ]
harryj
Sr. Member
Total Posts:  516
Joined  2012-12-07
RankRankRankRank




Hi Pertinax,
          Welcome to the forum. Your experience will be a useful addition. At least you accept that there can be different methods. The other AP(advantage players) consider the rest of us drooling imbeciles.
    Of course the HE is always operating and the longer you play the more serious the effects will be. But the HE like the standard odds only applies to a single spin that is about to happen. Obviously the effect will be cumulative UNLESS the punter takes positive steps to break the chain. There is no mathematical proof that the HE picks up where it left off every time a punter starts to play. IT IS NOT A LIFE TIME EXPERIENCE. I have played ROULETTE probably longer than you have played Craps and I have seen no sign of a MULTIPLYING HE dragging me down.
    Probability is a theory not a science! All the so called Laws are merely averages, not carved in stone. I have said this before but it’s worth repeating. The HE is merely a catalyst that convinces the punter he must play hard to stay ahead. The casinos real advantage is their financial clout, and the way they restrict the punters use of his capital with table limits.
      Incidentally the little experiment I proposed was to illustrate that the SD and HE in the last few spins of your million will be roughly the same as in the first few. I hope you can find your bias. The biggest bias I have found is that the RNG’s tend to produce more streaks and more repeats the live wheels.

    LOTS OF LUCK     Harry

Profile
 
 
Posted: 02 March 2013 10:13 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 9 ]
Chingy711
Sr. Member
Total Posts:  847
Joined  2012-05-18
RankRankRankRank




harryj - 02 March 2013 04:33 AM

. The biggest bias I have found is that the RNG’s tend to produce more streaks and more repeats the live wheels.

    LOTS OF LUCK     Harry

  Hello Harry,

    In reading your last post I saw that you have found a bias in RNG’s. I have been
  testing a strategy dealing with consecutive red/black streaks. I wrote two post the
  other day in the red black thread, mentioning that I have some concerns in reference
  to RNG’s producing what I believed was abnormally high streaks of red or blacck.
  That concern lead me to use 4 different RNG’s in my testing. The thing is even using
  4 different RNG’s I’m still seeing the same high number of streaks of red and black.
  I was hoping you might be able share some of your results concerning this bias on
  RNG’s. Do you have any opinion as to why this bias is occurring in RNGs? You also
  said it’s the “biggest bias”, can you tell me to what degree that bias is? Is it large
  enough to affect my testing results in say 1000 sessions of 5 - 50 spins per session.
  To be honest, after reading your post and learning about this RNG bias I’m disgusted.
  In 40 years of fooling around testing strategies, I was fascinated with the results
  of this latest strategy. In my limited sessions of 1200, my results show a positive
  total of $43,035. If this bias is correct and large enough all my samplings are
  meaningless. I was going to the casino today and chart live roulette results, but
  I’m not excited as I was before reading your post about this bias. Thanks Harry,
  I’m new here at this forum but have read many of your post and always find them
  interesting.  Have a good day! Louie

 Signature 

“If it’s not broken, don’t fix it!”

Profile
 
 
Posted: 02 March 2013 02:08 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 10 ]
harryj
Sr. Member
Total Posts:  516
Joined  2012-12-07
RankRankRankRank




Hi Louie,
        I have played in B&M’s and recently online. My experience as a competitive chess player taught me the importance of postmortems. I formed the habit of reviewing each session as soon as possible while I could still remember my feeling and emotions as I made each play. These reviews were used to tweak my strategy. When I switched to online I immediately noticed a difference. After a few sessions I decided to adjust my strategy. I used freeplay online to test my ideas. Once again I noticed a difference and became convinced that the RNG used in freeplay was not the same as that with real money.
  The RNG is supposed to be supplied by a separate company that supplies many casinos and is supposed to police any possible misuse. I came to believe that the RNG used for freeplay was supplied by the casino. Possibly to save money. I no longer use freeplay for testing but prefer to use results from real money play.
    You mentioned that you used 4 RNG’s or was it 4 different casinos?  Remember many of the online casinos are part of a group of many casinos all operated from the same building by the same people! When you log on check which group you are dealing with and which RNG they use.
    Believe me when I tell you that you can’t use online freeplay to check a strategy for a B&M. The best plan is to wander around the casino with a recorder in your pocket. Each time you pass a display showing the numbers use a hidden microphone to note the table and the numbers. That way you won’t attract attention from the eye in the sky.
    If wheel bias is your thing contact VB he might be willing to teach you his secret way of checking bias in less than an hour.
    Whatever you do GOOD LUCK     Harry

Profile
 
 
Posted: 02 March 2013 02:16 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 11 ]
Pertinax
Sr. Member
Total Posts:  351
Joined  2013-02-07
RankRankRankRank




harryj - 02 March 2013 04:33 AM

Hi Pertinax,
          Welcome to the forum. Your experience will be a useful addition. At least you accept that there can be different methods. The other AP(advantage players) consider the rest of us drooling imbeciles.
    Of course the HE is always operating and the longer you play the more serious the effects will be. But the HE like the standard odds only applies to a single spin that is about to happen. Obviously the effect will be cumulative UNLESS the punter takes positive steps to break the chain. There is no mathematical proof that the HE picks up where it left off every time a punter starts to play. IT IS NOT A LIFE TIME EXPERIENCE. I have played ROULETTE probably longer than you have played Craps and I have seen no sign of a MULTIPLYING HE dragging me down.
    Probability is a theory not a science! All the so called Laws are merely averages, not carved in stone. I have said this before but it’s worth repeating. The HE is merely a catalyst that convinces the punter he must play hard to stay ahead. The casinos real advantage is their financial clout, and the way they restrict the punters use of his capital with table limits.
      Incidentally the little experiment I proposed was to illustrate that the SD and HE in the last few spins of your million will be roughly the same as in the first few. I hope you can find your bias. The biggest bias I have found is that the RNG’s tend to produce more streaks and more repeats the live wheels.

    LOTS OF LUCK     Harry

Hi Harryj,
        just thought I would add, my simulations were to confirm 8000 spins from an auto wheel and 3000 spins from a brand new huxley, I have little interest in RNG outside of using it for analysis.  When compared I would not have been able to tell you which was the RNG sample, I would never say that was impossible due to certain factors in force, but I could not find any standard deviations that were not within the prediction of the bell curve and as such, expectation.  Problem in my mind is this, looking for a run of standard deviations seems like looking for a streak of numbers, or sections of the wheel to hit within X amount of spins.  I know it does happen, as you rightly point out, but where and when seems in the lap of the gods. 

If you have success with your method, then that is great, long may it last.  I just thought I would add a different view point so peole can look at things from different angles and decide for themselves.  Also bias in my country is pretty near impossible from what I can see, done alot of work here to find out the conditions do not really exist for the average player.  Thus I am looking at other possibilities, success is often not granted to those who give up easy so the game goes on.

Profile
 
 
Posted: 02 March 2013 03:32 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 12 ]
Chingy711
Sr. Member
Total Posts:  847
Joined  2012-05-18
RankRankRankRank




harryj - 02 March 2013 02:08 PM

Hi Louie,
        I have played in B&M’s and recently online. My experience as a competitive chess player taught me the importance of postmortems. I formed the habit of reviewing each session as soon as possible while I could still remember my feeling and emotions as I made each play. These reviews were used to tweak my strategy. When I switched to online I immediately noticed a difference. After a few sessions I decided to adjust my strategy. I used freeplay online to test my ideas. Once again I noticed a difference and became convinced that the RNG used in freeplay was not the same as that with real money.
  The RNG is supposed to be supplied by a separate company that supplies many casinos and is supposed to police any possible misuse. I came to believe that the RNG used for freeplay was supplied by the casino. Possibly to save money. I no longer use freeplay for testing but prefer to use results from real money play.
    You mentioned that you used 4 RNG’s or was it 4 different casinos?  Remember many of the online casinos are part of a group of many casinos all operated from the same building by the same people! When you log on check which group you are dealing with and which RNG they use.
    Believe me when I tell you that you can’t use online freeplay to check a strategy for a B&M. The best plan is to wander around the casino with a recorder in your pocket. Each time you pass a display showing the numbers use a hidden microphone to note the table and the numbers. That way you won’t attract attention from the eye in the sky.
    If wheel bias is your thing contact VB he might be willing to teach you his secret way of checking bias in less than an hour.
    Whatever you do GOOD LUCK     Harry

  Thanks Harry,
      I’m definitely aware of how the online casinos “tweak” their free play
    RNG’s, they want the players to have an enjoyable experience. The nightmare
    comes the minute the player decides to play “real money”, the player is
    now subjected to a real RNG. An online casino can even program the
    RNG, to interact based on the amount a players bets. I’ve seen sites
    where you’ll have great success betting a few dollars, then the minutes
    the player progresses to larger bets, it’s lights out for the player and he’s
    broke. Some of these online sites aren’t even regulated and no one will
    ever get to see their programs. I have been begging people for years never
    to gamble on any online site.
   
    As for the 4 RNGs I use are not from online casinos. These are different sites
    online for testing strategies. I just found a 1,000,000 spin sampling on the
    Wizard of Odds site. I’m going to try and do some testing with that and see
    what the results produce. But I agree with you the only way is to chart live
    casino play. Sadly this will take some time to get a large enough sampling.
    I have read many of VB’s posting and his post are quite interesting.

    I just read Pertinax’s post after yours and was happy to read that in some
    simulations he did he couldn’t tell which was the RNG. He also mentioned
    ” I could not find any standard deviations that were not within the prediction
    of the bell curve and as such, expectation.” It’s nice to come to a forum as
    this with so many highly intelligent individuals as you and Pertinax. I learn
    something everytime I come to the forum, it’s always interesting. Harry thanks
    again, really appreciate!  Louie
   
    PS: Pertinax, thank you also!

 Signature 

“If it’s not broken, don’t fix it!”

Profile
 
 
Posted: 03 March 2013 11:49 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 13 ]
Chingy711
Sr. Member
Total Posts:  847
Joined  2012-05-18
RankRankRankRank




It’s said that it’s impossible to over come the house edge in the
long run. Some 70 years ago, mathematicians said the same thing
about the game of blackjack. The game of blackjack has been noted
in books as far back as 1602, by Miguel de Cervantes, who is most
famous for writing Don Quixote. Edward O. Thorp, author of the 1960s
book Beat the Dealer which proved that the game could be beaten.
Just recently in a court ruling, poker was not a game of chance but of
skill. If you think about it almost everything we know of today was
once “impossible.” I was told my whole gambling life that craps was
unbeatable, but after losing for decades I can now play craps and
grind out a steady profit with money management and discipline.
I’m not a mathematician or genius, I’m a construction worker. I was
lucky that in my travels I did met a few very successful gamblers
that shared their wisdom. There are a handful craps teams throughout
the country and Europe grind out some very serious money at the
game. What I’m trying to say is that 99% of gamblers lose, but there
are men who do beat the so called “unbeatable.” The impossible is
the “POSSIBLE NOT DONE YET.” Sure there are thoses that swear they
win 99% or 100% of the time, well we live in a real world and most of
us know bullshit when we hear it. But there are thoses that have sound
money management and strategies that do overcome the house edge
and can grind out a nice living. Just like some of the greatest poker
players in the world, bad streaks happen, sometime for weeks or even a
month. But with sound play and with the right bankroll they can make
a living and some of them earn milions. Anything is possible!

                  HOW LONG IS THE LONG RUN
Here’s at article I found very interesting, hopefully a few may enjoy!

Mathematics Of Ion Saliu’s Paradox Or Problem Of N Trials
Another look at one of the steps leading to the Fundamental Formula of Gambling:
1 – DC = (1 – p) N
We can express the probability as p = 1/N; e.g. the probability of getting one point face when rolling a die is ‘1 in 6’ or p = 1/6; the probability of getting one roulette number is ‘1 in 38’ or p = 1/38. It is common sense that if we repeat the event N times we expect one success. That might be true for an extraordinarily large number of trials. If we repeat the event N times, we are NOT guaranteed to win. If we play roulette 38 consecutive spins, the chance to win is significantly less than 1!
1 – DC = (1 – 1/N) N
I noticed that (1 – 1/N) N has a limit. (1 – 1/N) N = ((N — 1)/N) N. I reversed and saw more clearly: limit of (N/(N — 1)) N is the definition of e (the base of the natural logarithm). Therefore:
1 – DC =1/e
and
DC = 1 — 1/e
The limit {1 — (1/e)} is approximately 0.63212055…
If the probability is 1/N and we repeat the event N times, the degree of certainty is {1 — (1/e)}, when N tends to infinity. I named this relation Ion Saliu’s paradox or problem of N trials.
How long is in the long run? Or, how big is the law of BIG numbers? Ion Saliu’s paradox of N trials makes it easy and clear. Let’s repeat the number of trials in M multiples of N; e.g. play one roulette number in two series of 38 numbers each. The formula becomes:
1 – DC = (1 – 1/N)NM = {(1 – 1/N)N}M = (1/e)M
Therefore, the degree of certainty becomes:
DC = 1 – (1/e)M
If M tends to infinity, (1/e)M tends to zero, therefore the degree of certainty tends to 1 (certainty, yes, but not in a philosophical sense!). Actually, relatively low values of M make the degree of certainty very, very nearly 100%. For example, if M = 20, DC = 99.9999992%. If M = 50, the PCs of the day calculate DC = 100%. Of course, they can’t approximate more than 18 decimal positions! Let’s say we want to know how long will it take for all pick-3 combinations come out. The computers say that all 1000 pick-3 combinations will come out within 50,000 drawings with a degree of certainty virtually equal to 100%

 Signature 

“If it’s not broken, don’t fix it!”

Profile
 
 
Posted: 25 April 2013 06:28 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 14 ]
addysaw
Jr. Member
Total Posts:  39
Joined  2013-03-11
RankRank




EG If the actual results show that streaks of 4-5-6 appear more frequently than mathematics suggests, the punter can make a bet every time heads or tails wins 3 times in a row. This can be a single bet or a short progression. Lost bets or progressions, and there will be quite a few, can either be absorbed or recovered by pressing the next target.
  If the homework has been done correctly the long run results will negate the HE.

 Signature 

soccer betting tips

best online bookmakers

Profile
 
 
   
 
 
‹‹ Roulette bot?      Got lucky today ››
Online roulette is also very popular in Australia with many of the internet casino brands directly targeting Australians, resulting in a huge choice of roulette sites available to Australians. CasinoReef recommends Ruby Fortune casino as one of the top online roulette casinos available in AUD. For New Zealanders, CasinoKiwi recommends Jackpot city casino as the most popular choice for new Zealanders playing roulette online.