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Roulette system don’t actually work?
Posted: 22 April 2013 04:16 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 16 ]
harryj
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roulettedealer - 21 April 2013 06:12 PM

If a strategy was effective and unbeatable, then it would not need to use a progression. The use of a progression suggests that your bet looses, and you are attempting to recover your losses. If youre bet looses, then how is it a consistant winner? A consistant winner utilizes an advantage of some sort, so therefore, if your method doesnt afford the player some advantage over the game, or the house, then it has the same odds of success as any other strategy out there. The only way to gain an advantage over an online casino would be to use an illegal method of some sort, or for there to be some sort of defect in the game itself…which I highly doubt. The only way to gain an edge over the house, is to be playing against the “house”, which would mean a live casino…a real wheel. Playing online means you are playing a number game, not a game of physics, you are playing the math of roulette…which is unbeatable.——Brian

Hi Brian we have crossed horns before on this subject. The math does give the casino a big advantage but it is NOT unbeateable. Nor is it the main reason for casino profits.
  Sorry I have been called away I will continue later…. Harry

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Posted: 22 April 2013 06:45 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 17 ]
VB Meister
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harryj - 22 April 2013 04:16 AM
roulettedealer - 21 April 2013 06:12 PM

If a strategy was effective and unbeatable, then it would not need to use a progression. The use of a progression suggests that your bet looses, and you are attempting to recover your losses. If youre bet looses, then how is it a consistant winner? A consistant winner utilizes an advantage of some sort, so therefore, if your method doesnt afford the player some advantage over the game, or the house, then it has the same odds of success as any other strategy out there. The only way to gain an advantage over an online casino would be to use an illegal method of some sort, or for there to be some sort of defect in the game itself…which I highly doubt. The only way to gain an edge over the house, is to be playing against the “house”, which would mean a live casino…a real wheel. Playing online means you are playing a number game, not a game of physics, you are playing the math of roulette…which is unbeatable.——Brian

Hi Brian we have crossed horns before on this subject. The math does give the casino a big advantage but it is NOT unbeateable. Nor is it the main reason for casino profits.
  Sorry I have been called away I will continue later…. Harry

Yip… Like Brian said, it is beatable using the physics of the game. The 2.7% HE you cannot beat with blind betting.

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Posted: 22 April 2013 09:23 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 18 ]
harryj
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VB Meister - 22 April 2013 06:45 AM
harryj - 22 April 2013 04:16 AM
roulettedealer - 21 April 2013 06:12 PM

If a strategy was effective and unbeatable, then it would not need to use a progression. The use of a progression suggests that your bet looses, and you are attempting to recover your losses. If youre bet looses, then how is it a consistant winner? A consistant winner utilizes an advantage of some sort, so therefore, if your method doesnt afford the player some advantage over the game, or the house, then it has the same odds of success as any other strategy out there. The only way to gain an advantage over an online casino would be to use an illegal method of some sort, or for there to be some sort of defect in the game itself…which I highly doubt. The only way to gain an edge over the house, is to be playing against the “house”, which would mean a live casino…a real wheel. Playing online means you are playing a number game, not a game of physics, you are playing the math of roulette…which is unbeatable.——Brian

Hi Brian we have crossed horns before on this subject. The math does give the casino a big advantage but it is NOT unbeateable. Nor is it the main reason for casino profits.
  Sorry I have been called away I will continue later…. Harry

Yip… Like Brian said, it is beatable using the physics of the game. The 2.7% HE you cannot beat with blind betting.

  My appologies to you both. My wife is completely helpless and requires 24 hour frail care nursing, which I provide. That’s why I no longer visit B&M casinos. I have not had a day off or a full night’s sleep in 15 years (I sound like Ben Gunn) so things sometimes get a little fraught.
    Back to roulette. The roulette HE is by far larger than the other table games. Skilled players at Craps and Blackjack can enjoy HE’s of well under 1%, Yet the house often makes more money from these games than roulette! Even if more players play those games itproves that the house has other options.  In part this is due to the stupidity and greed of the punters, who simply throw their money at the table without really understanding what they are up against. But hte most important advantage for the house is the ‘LARGE STACK SYNDROME’. It is a fact not a myth or a theory that the big bankroll has an advantage. This advantage can be measured in the difference in BR size. Not only is the casino BR 1000’s of times larger than that of the average punter but they have very strict rules designed to restrict the punters use of his/her BR. Applying math to this area is far more effective than trying to beat the HE!
    Brian the true use of a progression is not to force a win or even to recover a loss, but to spread and cushion the risk. Good risk management is the most important weapon in the punters armoury. My progressions are generally short in relation to the odds. Many only win with the 1st bet, the remaining bets in the series either breaking even or conceding a loss. The theory behind this is that if your loss is less than that of a flat bet series you are winning. If you lose 3 bets and end up 1 chip down after a win you have in effect won 1 chip as a flat bet series would have cost 2 chips.
    Got to go now but I will post a couple of sessions to illustrate what I mean.
      Regards     Harry

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Posted: 22 April 2013 01:27 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 19 ]
VB Meister
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Sorry to hear about your wife and your situation Harry. Respect to you brother.

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Posted: 23 April 2013 01:57 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 20 ]
harryj
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Thanks VB,
          But that doesn’t mean you should go easy on my posts. I am prepared to defend my theories, you had better be prepared to defend your’s. I promise to keep it impersonal!
      To paraphrase Al Gore and Mark Twain “It ain’t what you know that gives you trouble, but what you know that just ain’t so.”  In my post to Brian I pointed out that the casino’s HE was not the most important weapon in their arsenal. To drive home the ‘coffin nail’, when the British gambling act was passed it stated that the games had to be fair. This was interpreted as NO HE. The London clubs appealled this ruling, but they didn’t wait for the outcome. for several months they operated without a zero. They didn’t charge 10% to cash out either. None of them seemed to suffer and it was only later when the competition hotted up and the market became overloaded thet some went bust.
      The HE is important, but it mustn’t be allowed to completly define our approach to the game.
      Regards     Harry

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Posted: 23 April 2013 02:18 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 21 ]
harryj
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HI,
      This is a cry for help!  As I am often called away my posts are interupted for long periods. When I hit the submit button they simply disapear and I have to rewrite them from the beginning. I solve this problem with Emails by hitting save and picking up the draft later. How do I do this on the forum???
    The second problem is not so urgent. How do I separate portions of a post as a quote??
      Thanks   Harry

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Posted: 23 April 2013 02:19 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 22 ]
harryj
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HI,
      This is a cry for help!  As I am often called away my posts are interupted for long periods. When I hit the submit button they simply disapear and I have to rewrite them from the beginning. I solve this problem with Emails by hitting save and picking up the draft later. How do I do this on the forum???
    The second problem is not so urgent. How do I separate portions of a post as a quote??
      Thanks   Harry

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Posted: 23 April 2013 04:49 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 23 ]
scepticus
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harryj - 23 April 2013 02:19 PM

HI,
      This is a cry for help!  As I am often called away my posts are interupted for long periods. When I hit the submit button they simply disapear and I have to rewrite them from the beginning. I solve this problem with Emails by hitting save and picking up the draft later. How do I do this on the forum???
    The second problem is not so urgent. How do I separate portions of a post as a quote??
      Thanks   Harry

write in WORD then copy and paste into the forum
Regards

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Posted: 23 April 2013 05:35 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 24 ]
scepticus
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[      The HE is important, but it mustn’t be allowed to completly define our approach to the game.
      Regards     Harry


I agree with your view of the Long Run Harry , but not of progressions which, to my mind , are a form of chasing losses.
The Long Run is based on Probability Theory which only means likliehood and not certainty. In normal usage “Impossible ” means
that something cannot possibly happen while in maths a
“Mathematical Impossibility “might refer to something which can happen but is extremely unlikely to do so.The phrase ” It’s like looking for a needle in a haystack “sums it up but the needle is
obviously still in the haystack so is not impossible to find.
So the view that the House Edge means that we must lose is false
because there must always be a probability of success no matter if there is a million or trillion trials.This is why no maths geek dares to tell us how long his long run is -  he doesn’t know !
The guys who gave us the Banking Crisis made the assumption that
their maths were foolproof but were proved wrong. They ignored The Black Swan !
Human emotions are what gives the casinos their healthy profits, not the House Edge. You are right Harry.

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Posted: 23 April 2013 11:01 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 25 ]
The Midnight Skulker
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harryj - 23 April 2013 02:19 PM

This is a cry for help!  As I am often called away my posts are interupted for long periods. When I hit the submit button they simply disapear and I have to rewrite them from the beginning. I solve this problem with Emails by hitting save and picking up the draft later. How do I do this on the forum???

http://www.crapsforum.com/viewthread/3552/#12885 and subsequent posts in the thread.

harryj - 23 April 2013 02:19 PM

The second problem is not so urgent. How do I separate portions of a post as a quote??

http://www.crapsforum.com/viewthread/6352/#23249

 Signature 

My name is Skulker Luis de Midnight.
You killed my bankroll.
Prepare to die.

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Posted: 24 April 2013 04:04 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 26 ]
Pertinax
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harryj - 23 April 2013 02:19 PM

HI,
      This is a cry for help!  As I am often called away my posts are interupted for long periods. When I hit the submit button they simply disapear and I have to rewrite them from the beginning. I solve this problem with Emails by hitting save and picking up the draft later. How do I do this on the forum???
    The second problem is not so urgent. How do I separate portions of a post as a quote??
      Thanks   Harry

Hi harryj,
        regards the post dissappearing when you submit your post, I have a similar issue with my email.  A simple thing to do is simply
highlight the whole post, right click and copy it, as it is now on your clipboard if it dissapears on submit, you can simply paste it back and
repost it with all your quotes and details layed out correctly and as intended in a matter of seconds.

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Posted: 24 April 2013 01:56 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 27 ]
harryj
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Thanks Everyone, MS those links were great Ill give it a try.
  SCEP your dislike of progressions is well known. In most cases you are right. However this is not the correct way to use a progression. Wirh flat bets the target selection must be superior to the math expectancy if a profit is to be made. Generally flat bets work best on positions with longer odds, or those blanket systems that bet most of the table.
  Positive Progressions, that press after a win, have what is known as a ‘War Zone’ ie the 1st few bets when any profit must be fed back to increase the bet. Thus the punter must suffer through a steady lossing session until a good streak produces a win. It may seem that the casino is being made to finance the progression, in fact a good bank roll is essensial.
    Most punters use a negative progression and press the bet when they lose. The problem is that every increase must come out of the punters pocket. With many of these systems the stake rise is very rapid. Unless the BR is big enough to outlast the longest streak the wheel can produce the eventual loss will be crippling. However most casinos won’t let you go that far, the table limits will cut you off at the knees. Besides which it doesn’t make sense to to risk a couple of thousand bucks to win one.
    This all sounds like a denial of progressions, and it is!  Good progression are either short or quite complex. They are designed to spread the risk or restrict losses. They should not try to crush the casino with shear weight of money. A full discussion of this subject requires a thread of it’s own. Hope fully I’ll get time to start one.
      Regards     Harry

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Posted: 24 April 2013 04:19 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 28 ]
scepticus
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harryj - 24 April 2013 01:56 PM

Thanks Everyone, MS those links were great Ill give it a try.
  SCEP your dislike of progressions is well known. In most cases you are right. However this is not the correct way to use a progression. Wirh flat bets the target selection must be superior to the math expectancy if a profit is to be made. Generally flat bets work best on positions with longer odds, or those blanket systems that bet most of the table.
  Positive Progressions, that press after a win, have what is known as a ‘War Zone’ ie the 1st few bets when any profit must be fed back to increase the bet. Thus the punter must suffer through a steady lossing session until a good streak produces a win. It may seem that the casino is being made to finance the progression, in fact a good bank roll is essensial.
    Most punters use a negative progression and press the bet when they lose. The problem is that every increase must come out of the punters pocket. With many of these systems the stake rise is very rapid. Unless the BR is big enough to outlast the longest streak the wheel can produce the eventual loss will be crippling. However most casinos won’t let you go that far, the table limits will cut you off at the knees. Besides which it doesn’t make sense to to risk a couple of thousand bucks to win one.
    This all sounds like a denial of progressions, and it is!  Good progression are either short or quite complex. They are designed to spread the risk or restrict losses. They should not try to crush the casino with shear weight of money. A full discussion of this subject requires a thread of it’s own. Hope fully I’ll get time to start one.
      Regards     Harry

Hi Harry
I prefer level stakes because I am a low risk gambler - who bets with low stakes.
Profits grow slowly but ,up until now anyway, surely. I am not opposed to anyone else using them, I just think it unwise to do so .
You are spot on, though , when   you say progressions should only be applied when winning , not when losing. I can understand people betting progressions when losing, though, because at one time I did, when I still accepted that we must lose in the long run. It is psychological   -  most gamblers hate losing streaks and will do anything to avoid them. And the theory sounds logical.
I used to do a minimal progression -1pt-  if win bet 2pts and continued 2 pts. until it lost, thus not having a big stake on the inevitable loser but still catching the winning streaks.       
Our Money Our Choice.
-

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Posted: 24 April 2013 05:50 PM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 29 ]
roulettedealer
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The players bankroll doesnt have anything to do with thier chances of winning, or their advantage over the house. It is not the casinos bankroll, but rather thier table limits which decides the players bankroll usage. You cant simply continue to use a progression until you win if you have reached the table max. The math of roulette is unbeatable….it is unchangeable. By saying that you can beat roulette using math, you are saying that you can change the payouts…not true. The payouts for the individual bets are structured so that you cannot gain an advantage through a pattern of bets, or progressions….no matter how intricate. You are not spreading out anything…not your wins or losses, the house advantage remains the same regardless of how long you play, how large your bankroll…or how intricate a progression you use. When you try and figure out a clever way of swinging the house edge in your favor using any of these methods..you are beating a dead horse.  What you are saying is the same as if we were discussing blackjack, and you told me that card counting wasnt the only way to beat blackjack, but you could instead use a series of clever betting progressions to diminish the house edge….not true. The only way to gain an edge over the casino is to use an advantage method of some sort. What we have argued about in the past is whether or not the house edge means that the player is doomed to loose in the end…and of course, no one can say that the player will loose in the end….but if they win, it is blind luck. What advantage players strive to accomplish is to make it their skill which affords them a win time and time again, rather than relying on blind luck…because in the end, everyones luck will run out.——Brian

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Posted: 25 April 2013 12:41 AM   [ Ignore ]   [ # 30 ]
VB Meister
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roulettedealer - 24 April 2013 05:50 PM

The players bankroll doesnt have anything to do with thier chances of winning, or their advantage over the house. It is not the casinos bankroll, but rather thier table limits which decides the players bankroll usage. You cant simply continue to use a progression until you win if you have reached the table max. The math of roulette is unbeatable….it is unchangeable. By saying that you can beat roulette using math, you are saying that you can change the payouts…not true. The payouts for the individual bets are structured so that you cannot gain an advantage through a pattern of bets, or progressions….no matter how intricate. You are not spreading out anything…not your wins or losses, the house advantage remains the same regardless of how long you play, how large your bankroll…or how intricate a progression you use. When you try and figure out a clever way of swinging the house edge in your favor using any of these methods..you are beating a dead horse.  What you are saying is the same as if we were discussing blackjack, and you told me that card counting wasnt the only way to beat blackjack, but you could instead use a series of clever betting progressions to diminish the house edge….not true. The only way to gain an edge over the casino is to use an advantage method of some sort. What we have argued about in the past is whether or not the house edge means that the player is doomed to loose in the end…and of course, no one can say that the player will loose in the end….but if they win, it is blind luck. What advantage players strive to accomplish is to make it their skill which affords them a win time and time again, rather than relying on blind luck…because in the end, everyones luck will run out.——Brian

Well written post Brian. The longer you play whether in sessions of 100 spins for 10000 spins or whether continuous, luck gets negated. Simple.

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